Gold prices have shown a strong rebound since August, with international prices continuing to climb. In the first trading week of August, from August 3 to 7, London spot gold rose approximately $264 per ounce, a 7.44% increase from around $4,040 per ounce, marking the largest single-week gain since February this year.
On August 11, spot gold broke through the $4,400 per ounce mark during trading, reaching a high of $4,434.95 per ounce. On August 13, COMEX gold briefly surpassed $4,500 per ounce, hitting a high of $4,509.1 per ounce. The direct trigger for this rapid price increase was weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which quickly shifted market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Previously, the market was debating the possibility of a rate hike, but now the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September has risen to 59.9%, while the probability of a rate hike has fallen to 40.1%.
Additionally, multiple positive factors, including central bank gold purchases providing a floor and a weakening U.S. dollar index, have jointly driven gold's valuation recovery. On the capital flow front, holdings in the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, have continued to rise, reaching 1,020.96 metric tons as of August 10.
A research report from Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. suggests that the rise in gold prices could serve as a positive catalyst for gold jewelry companies. Consumers generally tend to "buy when prices are rising and avoid when they are falling," and a price increase helps create a wealth effect, facilitating consumer purchasing decisions. Furthermore, demand for wedding-related gold jewelry in the second half of the year, along with holiday consumption, is expected to provide seasonal support for demand.
From a gross margin perspective, gold jewelry brands need to build inventory in advance to meet sales targets. During a rising gold price cycle, inventory costs are generally lower than sales prices, which is beneficial for gross margin expansion. Additionally, new product forms, such as fixed-price items that align with the trend of self-pleasing consumption, may have higher gross margins than traditional plain gold products. If their sales share increases, it could help optimize the gross margins of gold jewelry companies.