Gold prices have pulled back from their recent highs, with spot gold facing selling pressure during Thursday's Asian trading session as New York gold futures slipped below the $4,450 per ounce mark. Earlier in the session, prices surged toward the key $4,450 level, only to reverse sharply as a wave of profit-taking emerged from the rapid short-term rally. The market is now awaiting the release of the U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims data later today, which will serve as critical indicators of inflation stickiness and are expected to trigger a fresh round of volatility.

A recent survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) indicates that spot gold is expected to trade near or above $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2026. The survey, conducted in July with 16 professional analysts, found that while gold prices frequently dipped below $4,000 per ounce during the month, the average year-end forecast was still more than 12% above current levels. The highest forecast for gold prices at the end of 2026 was $5,100 per ounce, implying a 15% upside from current prices, while the lowest forecast was $3,879 per ounce, which is $100 below the 2026 low set in early July. The LBMA noted that market expectations for gold have gradually aligned with the actual performance of the first seven months of the year. The association now projects an average price of $4,604 per ounce for 2026, with a forecast range of $4,872 to $5,800 per ounce for the second-half high, and a low-end forecast of $3,450 per ounce. It also highlighted that the average gold price for the first seven months of the year was $4,595.75 per ounce, $135 below the average forecast from a January survey of 28 analysts.

On the daily chart, gold continues to trade in a high-level consolidation pattern, with the K-line staying above the short-term moving averages, indicating a slightly bullish bias. The key resistance zone is around $4,490 to $4,500 per ounce. On the 4-hour chart, prices are gradually breaking through previous resistance levels, with short-term moving averages sloping upward, suggesting a bullish trend. However, the market is watching for a potential pullback to confirm support before a secondary upward move. On the lower timeframes, after a rapid surge, prices are now in a narrow range, with short-term moving averages flattening, hinting at a possible correction. The U.S. July CPI data, which met expectations, fueled a slight uptick in rate-cut expectations, pushing gold prices higher. However, as prices hit a session high, many long positions were closed for profit-taking. The market is now in a data digestion phase, with attention turning to the U.S. PPI data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The market is likely to remain volatile in a high-level range, and it is not advisable to chase gains or sell into weakness. The daily chart shows a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure at highs, but the price remains above key moving averages, suggesting the medium-term bullish trend is intact. However, short-term overbought conditions and declining momentum signal a weakening of upward strength. The key short-term support level is $4,400; holding above this zone could lead to a retest of recent highs, while a sustained break below could expand the correction range. On the 4-hour chart, the pullback from highs has seen overbought indicators retreat, increasing market divergence. The market is expected to remain in a high-level range, awaiting the next catalyst.