Data from the China Coal Market Network shows that as of July 24, the "CCTD Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Spot Reference Price" for the 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K grades closed at 826 yuan/ton, 736 yuan/ton, and 643 yuan/ton, respectively, down 11 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton from the start of the month.

Looking at the overall situation in July, coal prices weakened and fluctuated in early July, hit an inflection point in mid-month as they bottomed out and rebounded, and then saw slower market transactions near the end of the month, with prices adjusting narrowly after the rise.

The "first weak, then strong" trend in July thermal coal prices resulted from multiple market factors. Entering July, the market generally anticipated a demand increase during the peak summer season. Upstream traders had a strong willingness to stock up, and inventories at ports and downstream power plants had accumulated to relatively high levels in the previous period. These high inventories naturally suppressed prices.

A research report from Yongan Futures Co., Ltd. believes that domestic thermal coal prices have recently stabilized and recovered. The earlier sustained weakness in coal prices was partly due to a easing of overseas geopolitical tensions, which led to lower international coal prices, and partly because China was in the rainy season, where thermal coal consumption for power generation was weak. Combined with high inventory accumulation at ports, this drove down port coal prices. Subsequently, as expectations of a tightening supply in production areas fermented and port inventories began to decline, overall market sentiment recovered somewhat, and coal prices stopped falling and rebounded.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) recently announced that on July 10, the national electricity load hit a record high for the year for the first time, reaching 1.518 billion kilowatts, an increase of 10 million kilowatts from the historical peak. Since the start of summer, the electricity load of the southern regional grid and several provincial grids, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian, and Shaanxi, has set new historical highs more than 20 times. The NDRC stated that in the next step, it will enhance the capacity for stable power generation and supply, ensure the production and supply of primary energy sources like coal and natural gas, and coordinate the dispatch of various power sources, including wind, solar, hydro, thermal, and storage, to improve peak-shaving and supply security capabilities.

Regarding the future coal price trend, the aforementioned research report suggests that the core focus of the current thermal coal market is the actual strength of demand during the peak season. On the supply side, domestic production area safety supervision is operating on a routine basis, and raw coal supply remains in a tight pattern. Against this backdrop, the actual thermal coal consumption demand for power generation and whether it can drive sustained and effective destocking of market inventories will directly determine the upward potential of this thermal coal price cycle. Supported in the short term by a tight supply-demand balance and the support from the peak summer demand window, coal prices, after a full correction, still have a foundation for upward movement. However, to open up sustained upward space, it still depends on a substantial recovery in peak-season demand and a continuous decline in the overall inventory center. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track the actual daily coal consumption of power plants, the pace of destocking across the entire society, and changes in the overseas geopolitical landscape.

Looking ahead to August's thermal coal price trend, the overall situation will maintain a relatively strong performance, but the characteristic of volatility will remain quite apparent. Overall, August's thermal coal prices will maintain a high-level, volatile pattern under the continuous struggle between supply and demand. Market participants need to pay more attention to the changing pace of the demand side and the policy direction of the supply side, and reasonably adjust inventory levels and business strategies.