US markets closed significantly higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging by approximately 930 points, driven by robust gains in the semiconductor sector. Following remarks from former President Trump hinting at a potential agreement with Iran, oil prices fell to their lowest level since April. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, propelling gold and silver prices higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 929.97 points, or 1.86%, closing at 50,848.75. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 640.16 points, or 2.54%, to finish at 25,809.66. The S&P 500 gained 127.30 points, or 1.75%, ending the session at 7,394.30.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate in June stands at 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For July, the likelihood of rates holding steady is 91.3%, with probabilities of a 25 basis point hike and a 25 basis point cut at 7.4% and 1.4%, respectively.

Former President Trump commented on Iran, stating that an "excellent deal" had been reached, with documents in the final drafting stage and expected to be signed within days. He suggested the signing could occur in Europe this weekend, with Vice President Vance in attendance.

Trump also posted on social media that he had canceled planned strikes against Iran after negotiation results were submitted to and approved by Iran's supreme leadership. He noted that US maritime blockade measures against Iran would remain fully in effect until the final agreement is signed. Previously, Trump had threatened "devastating strikes" and spoken of potentially occupying Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure to control Iran's oil and gas market.

The World Bank, in its latest Global Economic Prospects report, stated that due to shocks from the Iran conflict, global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 from 2.9% last year. If energy supply disruptions worsen alongside significant financial stress, global growth could decelerate to 1.3% in 2026.

Semiconductor Sector Leads Gains

The semiconductor sector displayed remarkable strength, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 7.91%. KLA Corporation surged nearly 13%, Lam Research gained over 12%, and Micron Technology rose more than 11%. Arm Holdings advanced over 11%, Applied Materials increased by more than 11%, and Intel jumped over 9%. ASML Holding was up more than 9%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained nearly 8%, and Qualcomm rose over 6%.

Anthropic's founder and CEO, Dario Amodei, published a lengthy article titled "Exponential AI Policy," calling for mandatory government oversight of leading AI firms. Amodei argued that the "exponential explosion" of AI is unstoppable and necessitates mandatory third-party testing, with governments having the authority to "shut down" models if catastrophic risks are detected. Anthropic also released two proposals: a mandatory oversight framework for frontier AI models and an economic compensation plan for AI's impact on employment.

SpaceX confirmed in a website news release that its initial public offering (IPO) would consist of 555.6 million shares priced at $135 per share. The stock is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker symbol "SPCX."

Prominent short-seller James Chanos commented that SpaceX's high-profile public listing is driven more by investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk and artificial intelligence than by financial fundamentals. He expressed skepticism that the company's valuation is justifiable under any reasonable business assumptions.

Bank of America upgraded Intel from "Underperform" to "Buy," setting a price target of $135. The upgrade was primarily based on increased confidence in the prospects for Intel's server chip business and its external foundry operations. The analysis team stated that previous sum-of-the-parts valuations based on 2028 estimates had underestimated the company's long-term potential in chip manufacturing and foundry services. Bank of America now expects Intel's earnings per share to exceed $6 by 2030, up from a previous estimate of $3 to $4.

Oil Prices Retreat as Gold Advances

Influenced by Trump's comments, oil prices fell sharply to their lowest levels since April. West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery dropped 2.6%, settling at $87.71 per barrel. Brent crude for August delivery declined 2.9%, settling at $90.38 per barrel.

Frank Monkam, Head of Cross-Asset Macro Strategy and Trading at Buffalo Bayou Commodities, noted that the "shifting messages" from the Trump administration "limit crude traders' ability to take on risk aggressively in the market."

Gold recorded its largest single-day gain in over two months. Following Trump's statements regarding a potential US-Iran agreement, falling US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar boosted gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices.

As of 5 PM Eastern Time, spot gold was up 3.4% at $4,212.26 per ounce. Spot silver surged 6.2% to $67.3058 per ounce.