Recent discussions about gold reaching a peak have become widespread, creating a sense of déjà vu. Last year, when gold prices approached $3,500, similar bearish sentiments prevailed, yet after four months of consolidation, gold surged to $5,000. History appears to be repeating itself, though this time the arguments for a downturn seem more compelling. However, determining whether gold has truly peaked is straightforward: a genuine peak is likely only when the economy is booming, earning money feels easy, global peace prevails, central banks are raising interest rates, and prosperity is widespread worldwide. The current reality, however, is quite the opposite.

The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising oil prices fueling inflation concerns. Yet, the underlying drivers remain strong: conflicts in the Middle East, instigated by the U.S., continue to escalate, and global geopolitical tensions are worsening. The true intention behind U.S. actions against Iran is to sever the energy lifeline of the East—an escalation of major-power rivalry. It is important to remember that last year’s U.S.-China trade negotiations only postponed issues for a year, without resolving them. Geopolitical risks, trade friction, economic slowdown, currency depreciation, and central bank gold purchases—all these factors continue to support gold.

Recent price volatility has unsettled many investors, but it is essential to recognize that this is a normal reaction to surging oil prices, rising inflation, and shifting expectations around Fed policy. As the base price of gold has risen, what appears as sharp fluctuation actually remains within reasonable bounds. Investors who grow anxious over short-term swings reveal a speculative mindset; those focused on weekly or monthly charts often miss out on the long-term bull market gains.

A true bull market tests investors’ psychology, not the market itself. History tends to repeat: despair during downturns and euphoria during rallies—this is the nature of markets. Looking ahead to 2026, the dynamics of the gold and silver markets are undergoing profound changes. The end of a bull market is determined by objective conditions, not market sentiment. The global order is rapidly shifting toward multipolarity, with U.S. dollar hegemony weakening and central banks worldwide accelerating de-dollarization. Emerging economies like China and India continue to increase gold reserves, using the metal as a foundation for monetary and national credibility.

Notably, the trend of central bank gold buying shows no sign of slowing—in fact, it is accelerating. Against the backdrop of global restructuring, it is premature to declare the end of gold’s bull market. Silver, however, requires separate consideration, as its intrinsic value differs significantly from gold’s. In an era filled with uncertainty, gold’s role as the ultimate safe-haven asset is becoming increasingly prominent.