On May 28, the latest inventory data continued to reinforce the tight balance characteristics of the crude oil market. A report from OilPrice at 18:00 on May 27 indicated that global crude oil inventories are approaching minimum operational levels, with refined product supplies being even tighter in some regions. The report cited views from energy market participants, suggesting that the pace of inventory drawdowns, summer demand, and insufficient new supply could maintain a tight market balance in the coming months. Related calculations from Goldman Sachs show that since May, global inventories have been drawing down at an average daily rate of 8.7 million barrels. CPT Markets stated that the simultaneous decline in commercial inventories, gasoline stocks, and Cushing inventories is making the market more cautious in its assessment of short-term supply elasticity.

Regarding price levels, CPT Markets believes that the inventory decline provides a floor of support for oil prices. However, the absence of a simple one-way upward movement in prices indicates that traders are still evaluating the relationship between demand, the pace of supply recovery, and refined product consumption. The notable decline in gasoline inventories within the API data is particularly noteworthy, as it more directly reflects terminal demand and refinery restocking rhythms, which will also influence subsequent crack spreads.

Market data shows that strategic reserves continue to decline, further thinning the overall inventory buffer. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production has only experienced a slight pullback, which alone is insufficient to fully explain price volatility. Analysts believe the core variable for current oil prices has shifted from single-week inventory changes to whether the consecutive inventory drawdowns will persist and whether summer demand will amplify supply pressures.

If commercial and refined product inventories continue to decline in the coming weeks, oil prices may maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. However, if signals of demand slowdown emerge, prices could also experience rapid pullbacks from elevated levels. CPT Markets suggests that for traders, the immediate reaction following inventory data releases does not necessarily represent the trend. Observing data in conjunction with Cushing changes, gasoline inventories, and production figures provides a more accurate picture of the true supply and demand situation.