On October 31, spot gold continued to fluctuate around the key $4,000 level overnight. While the daily chart has yet to show a reversal in the pullback, the four-hour chart indicates easing adjustments. However, the consolidation trend remains unchanged, with prices struggling to stabilize. Before Friday's close, it remains uncertain whether gold can hold above $4,160. Failure to do so may lead to further downside testing of the $3,900 support level next week. Conversely, a firm hold could signal a rebound and upward consolidation, potentially forming a new uptrend.

Geopolitically, the rare earth license issue served as a stress test, ultimately resulting in a diplomatic meeting after concessions. Global tensions have taken a new direction—or at least sparked fresh speculation. While expectations of a full-scale conflict have faded, regional flashpoints, such as potential U.S. pressure on Venezuela, may emerge. Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts. Overnight, Fed Chair Powell's remarks and the rate cut decision triggered a minor dip and recovery, though the Fed's actual impact on gold remains limited. The key driver for risk sentiment lies in geopolitical developments—whether false ceasefire rumors or evolving tensions—suggesting a less optimistic outlook than previously expected. Still, gold has held firm at $3,900, marking a critical juncture.

For now, rushing into long positions is not advisable. Gold remains in a broad consolidation phase without clear unilateral signals. The daily chart shows a death cross, but deeper pullbacks seem unlikely. Investors should stay patient, waiting for a confirmed golden cross signal before entering new positions. Despite short-term volatility, the broader uptrend remains intact—don’t abandon bullish expectations prematurely.