According to a research report from UOB Kay Hian, the brokerage has lowered its average selling price assumption for Ganfeng Lithium (01772), cut its target price from HK$75 to HK$28, and downgraded its rating from Buy to Hold.

The report noted that the lithium carbonate futures contract expiring in January 2027 closed at RMB 104,740 per tonne on October 12, down 11.8%, marking the first time since late December 2025 that it closed below RMB 110,000 per tonne.

The report pointed out that this futures contract has fallen more than 37% since early September 2026, nearly halving from its mid-May high of over RMB 200,000 per tonne, mainly due to market expectations of increased supply rather than weakening current demand. The brokerage expects global lithium carbonate demand to reach 2.6 million tonnes in 2027, with supply and demand remaining balanced.

The brokerage forecasts Ganfeng Lithium's third-quarter net profit at RMB 1.75 billion, down 28% quarter-on-quarter, while cutting its full-year earnings forecast by 22% to RMB 7.214 billion.