Oil prices stabilized following a two-day decline as traders weighed the possibility of OPEC+ discussing an acceleration of its next production increase cycle.
December Brent crude futures hovered near $66 per barrel after the contract dropped nearly 5% during the first two trading days of the week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices fell below $63. A representative indicated that the OPEC+ alliance plans to discuss this weekend the potential for a three-month production increase of 500,000 barrels per month to regain market share. However, OPEC stated there are no such plans.
In broader markets, traders are monitoring the US government shutdown situation. The federal government began shuttering operations after Congress failed to reach an agreement before the midnight funding deadline in Washington. US stock index futures and Asian equities both declined modestly.
Crude prices fell for the second consecutive month in September, following a round of supply increases by OPEC+ that reinforced expectations of global production exceeding demand. While China's reserves as the world's largest oil importer have provided some price support in recent quarters, the International Energy Agency forecasts a record supply surplus next year.
"The US government shutdown adds market noise, particularly if it disrupts data flows, but it doesn't change the near-term picture of ample supply," said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank in Singapore. "Brent crude remains under pressure as the market leans toward expectations of oversupply."
Investors also assessed a mixed US industry inventory report. The American Petroleum Institute reported that while national petroleum reserves decreased by 3.7 million barrels last week, gasoline and distillate inventories increased. It remains unclear whether the US government shutdown will delay the Energy Information Administration's weekly market status report typically released on Wednesdays.