Analysts: Alibaba's Stock Undervalued Due to Cloud Business Potential

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Morningstar analyst Tan Qihong stated that Alibaba's stock price is undervalued, as the market continues to overlook the potential of its cloud business and underestimates management's execution capabilities. Regarding its on-demand e-commerce segment, she believes the company has passed its peak losses and noted that management expects a significant narrowing of losses in the December quarter. She also predicts that by 2027, the on-demand delivery market will be dominated by two major players: Alibaba and Meituan.

Morningstar largely maintained its forecasts for Alibaba's cloud revenue and capital expenditures above guidance, adding that management sees accelerating AI demand while suggesting its capital expenditure guidance may be overly conservative. The firm lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for fiscal years 2026–2028 (ending March) by 5%–7% but kept its mid-term earnings estimates largely unchanged. Morningstar retained its fair value estimate of HK$251.00.

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