The anticipated production increase would signal the start of a gradual unwinding of the coalition's voluntary output cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are set to convene on Sunday, facing a familiar dilemma: whether to increase supply to the market or maintain production restraint against a backdrop of fragile geopolitical tensions. After implementing multiple rounds of production increases last year, the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to keep output steady for the first quarter of this year. Analysts suggest the group is now expected to resume increasing supply, starting with a modest initial hike of 137,000 barrels per day. This move would mark the official commencement of a phased exit from the voluntary cuts totaling approximately 1.65 million barrels per day—measures originally planned to remain in place until the end of 2026. Some analysts predict the remaining production limits could be lifted within six months, while others believe the process may extend until the end of the year. However, several experts note that due to capacity constraints faced by some member countries, typically only about half of any quota increases translate into actual production. OPEC has not yet commented on the matter. "The oil market should be able to absorb additional supply," stated Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS. The Brent crude futures curve on the Intercontinental Exchange remains in backwardation—where near-term prices are higher than those for later delivery—indicating tight short-term supply conditions. Goldman Sachs believes that, following a series of supply disruptions early this year in countries like Kazakhstan and lower-than-expected inventories in OECD nations, OPEC+ is likely to implement a modest production increase between April and June. Much of the expected surplus supply is not located at major pricing hubs, with significant volumes of Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude accumulating on tankers at sea. Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns are providing support for near-term oil prices. During Friday midday trading in Europe, Brent crude was priced around $71 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was above $65 per barrel. A February survey of major Wall Street banks indicated expectations for second-quarter average prices of approximately $61 for Brent and $58 for WTI—about $1 higher than previous forecasts but still below projected 2025 levels. As the potential for increased production looms, markets are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, concerned that any escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt energy shipments from the oil-producing region. The latest round of talks between the two countries concluded without an agreement last Thursday, with further negotiations expected to resume next week. "Any escalation in conflict could prompt OPEC to act to stabilize the market," said Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, commodity analysts at ANZ Research. Should supply disruptions occur, OPEC+ is expected to utilize its spare production capacity—most of which is concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.