Key Juncture Fuels U.S. Military Action Fears; Domestic Chip Substitution Accelerates

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昨天

April has finally concluded, with A-shares demonstrating robust performance. Notably, the ChiNext Index surged over 15% for the month, reaching a fresh ten-year high, while the STAR 50 Index jumped more than 25%. Hong Kong stocks delivered a steady performance in April, dipping 1.28% on the final day but still posting a monthly gain of 3.99%.

As widely anticipated, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday its decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. Dissent emerged among the 12 voting members, with four officials opposing the decision. Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a 25-basis-point cut this year, while three regional Fed presidents supported holding rates steady but objected to the statement's retention of an easing bias, highlighting significant internal divisions.

Observing Powell's "final act": He will remain on the Fed's Board of Governors, citing the need to await the complete conclusion of an investigation. He also pledged not to obstruct the new chair's administration, vowing to avoid becoming a "shadow chair." This decision is relatively reasonable, helping to preserve the Federal Reserve's independence. Former President Trump expressed dissatisfaction, remarking that Powell "has nowhere else to go."

Following yesterday's momentum, Hong Kong stocks were poised for further gains today. However, concerns resurfaced: The U.S. Central Command has applied for permission to deploy "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missiles to the Middle East. If approved, this would mark the first U.S. combat deployment of hypersonic missiles, potentially targeting ballistic missile launchers deep within Iran. The timing is delicate, with intense focus on Friday, May 1st. According to U.S. law regarding the calculation for war declarations, the conflict is approaching its 60th day, after which the President would require congressional authorization to continue military actions. Markets speculate that Trump might act preemptively before this deadline. With time running short, Trump faces a daunting task list, including managing mid-term elections and an upcoming visit to China.

Capital markets are growing wary. While A-shares, dominated by domestic capital, remain relatively calm, Hong Kong stocks, with their heavier foreign investment, are more sensitive. Brent crude futures for June surged over 4%, climbing above $122 to a new high since the Iran war. PetroChina (00857) continued its ascent.

Today's market was significantly impacted by negative earnings surprises. Tianneng Power (00819) reported an 82.14% year-on-year plunge in first-quarter net profit for its subsidiary, Tianneng Co., leading to a steep decline of over 27%. Lithium carbonate, which strengthened yesterday, continued its price rise, with futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surpassing 180,000 yuan. This price increase stems from a supply-demand imbalance. On the supply side: the world's largest hard-rock lithium mine, Greenbushes, lowered its production guidance; export restrictions on lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe and shipping disruptions from Australia are also affecting supply. On the demand side: strong growth in energy storage, accelerating penetration of electric vehicles, and China's electric trucks are driving consumption amid a tense energy landscape. Consequently, visibility for rising lithium prices is improving. Previously mentioned leader Tianqi Lithium (09696) gained over 5%, while Rept Battero (00666) rose nearly 3%.

Lead Intelligent Equipment (00470), which supplies equipment to the lithium battery sector, continues to benefit. The company provides full-process equipment for power and energy storage battery production, including cutting-edge production lines for solid-state and sodium-ion batteries. Its clientele includes global top battery makers such as CATL, BYD, CALB, EVE Energy, LG Energy Solution, and Panasonic. It holds a high global market share for core equipment and leads the industry in full-line capability, automation, and precision. Its shares rose over 5% today.

The AI fervor persists. Four of the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. tech giants released their latest quarterly reports on the same day. Two of them (Alphabet and Meta) further raised their capital expenditure forecasts, Microsoft provided a capex guidance far exceeding market expectations, while Amazon maintained its capex outlook. The Brookings Institution noted: "The U.S. maintains a clear lead at the AI technology frontier, especially in computational scale and model performance, but China is rapidly catching up through efficiency gains, open-source diffusion, and deep integration of AI with the real economy. Long-term, the outcome of this race depends not only on who builds the strongest model but also on who can more effectively translate AI into broad economic and social benefits." With no retreat in this AI race and continued overseas investment, domestic players must keep pace. In A-shares, Cambricon (688256.SH) surged by the 20% daily limit today, becoming the new market favorite, underscoring intense investor interest, with earnings also serving as a key catalyst.

Reports indicate that the U.S. last week demanded several chip equipment companies halt shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker, Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347). Morgan Stanley released a report suggesting the impact on Hua Hong's Fab 9B is minor, as it focuses on mature nodes (40-55nm), not advanced nodes. For HLMC, part of the Hua Hong group, the bank expects integration at Fab 6 to remain limited to 22-28nm production lines, not advanced nodes like 7-12nm. Therefore, this move is likely another tactical ploy by Trump to gain leverage ahead of negotiations. Hua Hong (01347) rose over 5% today.

An outcome has been reached regarding SMIC's (00981) plan to issue shares for the acquisition of a combined 49% equity stake in SMIC Northern Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Beijing) Co., Ltd. On April 30, according to a Shanghai Stock Exchange announcement, SMIC received a follow-up implementation letter from the SSE's review center. SMIC Northern, a leading domestic 12-inch IC wafer foundry platform focused on mature processes, maintains stable operations and strong profitability. Post-transaction, SMIC will directly enjoy 100% of SMIC Northern's operational results, with expected improvements in net profit attributable to shareholders and basic earnings per share. Approval should have been granted sooner; this is a critical window for import substitution, and the process must accelerate. Domestic chip hopes rest heavily on SMIC's capacity. Its shares gained nearly 8% today. Other chip-related stocks also strengthened, with Iluvatar CoreX (09903) and Biren Technology (06082) rising over 21% and 8%, respectively.

Stocks with strong earnings continue to perform well. Innovent Biologics (01801) reported first-quarter revenue exceeding RMB 3.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 50%. Five of its tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) experienced rapid sales expansion after being newly included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL). Other core products, including Mazdutide Injection, Tolevisumab Injection, and Tetomoyumab N01 Injection, also delivered excellent performance. Its shares climbed over 6% today.

Evergrande Property Services (06666) announced mid-month that the liquidators of China Evergrande Group had signed an exclusivity agreement with a selected bidder. The parties will engage in a 30-working-day exclusive negotiation concerning a 51.016% stake in Evergrande Property Services. The market anticipates a resolution regarding the acquirer for Evergrande Property Services as early as May, driving speculative activity. Its shares rose over 5% again today.

**Sector Focus** On April 30, relevant departments in Tianjin issued a notice on optimizing real estate supply and promoting housing consumption. The notice proposed that districts utilize national fiscal and financial policy tools effectively based on local conditions, prioritizing the acquisition of eligible existing commercial housing for use as rental-oriented affordable housing, sale-oriented affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing, while reasonably regulating the development of various new affordable housing projects. It encourages operating entities like housing rental enterprises to raise funds through multiple channels to legally acquire existing commercial housing for rental purposes. Special bond funds should be utilized to recover and acquire idle land stock. Support is offered for enterprises to promote sustained real estate project development through measures like reasonable design optimization. Recent positive developments for the property sector are accumulating, including yesterday's targeted easing in Shenzhen's core areas and significant increases in housing provident fund loan limits, to today's Tianjin initiative for acquiring existing housing for保障 purposes. These measures are expected to significantly aid inventory reduction for property stocks. Key Hong Kong-listed property players include: China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081), China Overseas Land & Investment (00688), China Jinmao (00817), China Resources Land (01109), Greentown China (03900), and China Vanke Co.,Ltd. (02202).

**Stock Analysis** Goldwind Science & Technology (02208): Plans A-Share Buyback Up to RMB 500 Million; Multiple Factors Drive Business Growth The company announced its intention to use自有 funds to repurchase部分 of its A-shares via集中竞价交易. All repurchased shares will be canceled, reducing the company's registered capital. The buyback amount is set between RMB 300 million and RMB 500 million. For the first quarter, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 15.485 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63.48%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 907 million, up 59.65% year-on-year. Analysis: The share buyback and cancellation enhance shareholder equity and boost valuation, with H-shares directly benefiting from A-share valuation repair. While the absolute amount is not enormous, it underscores management's view that the current share price is significantly undervalued. This move is set to further bolster investor confidence. Examining the earnings, first-quarter performance exceeded expectations. By the end of Q1, the company's external order backlog stood at 50.7GW; its overseas order book was 9,567MW, increasing by 297MW since the end of 2025. The company's core strengths include: 1) Technological barriers: Dual-path strategy with direct-drive permanent magnet and medium-speed permanent magnet technologies; maturity in 16MW+ offshore wind; over 7,300 patents. 2) Scale advantages: Global production capacity layout leading to 5–8% lower procurement costs. 3) Globalization: Presence in 49 countries, benefiting from higher-margin overseas business that insulates against domestic cycles. 4) Product mix: Large-scale turbines (6MW+) account for 88% of sales, with offshore wind capacity expanding. The company maintains its target for full-year 2026 wind turbine gross margin between 9% and 10%. In emerging businesses, the company's green methanol second growth curve is fully operational: the 500,000-ton project in Xing'an League is set for 2026 production, with an order backlog of 750,000 tons, expected to contribute profit increments starting 2026, potentially followed by policy catalysts for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol. Additionally, the company holds a 4.14% stake in LandSpace. Catalysts are anticipated following the launches of the Zhuque-2 E and Zhuque-3 rockets.

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