Gold Rebounds to $4,500 per Ounce: Is the "Oil Up, Gold Down" Trend Over?

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Expectations of a ceasefire and peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have emerged, leading to a stronger performance in precious metals overnight. Spot gold in London rose steadily, climbing back to $4,500 per ounce during early Wednesday trading. COMEX gold futures closed 1.19% higher, while SHFE gold rose by 0.37%. The U.S. government is seeking a one-month ceasefire to facilitate negotiations. However, even as the ceasefire proposal was put forward, additional troops were being deployed. As of the time of writing, Iran has not yet responded, but on the evening of the 24th, Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again by the U.S. and Israel.

Geopolitical events are showing signs of a critical turning point. Crude oil has retreated significantly, while gold has regained strength. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain in U.S.-Iran negotiations, leading to increased volatility in gold prices during the session.

Market attention continues to focus on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The U.S. president stated that negotiations "may be quite close to reaching an agreement," with Iran agreeing never to possess nuclear weapons. Reports indicate that the U.S. is willing to implement a one-month ceasefire and has proposed a 15-point peace plan. The prospect of eased tensions between the U.S. and Iran has become a key factor behind the recent improvement in market sentiment. This also highlights the market’s current sensitivity to geopolitical developments. However, the direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential conflicts remains highly uncertain, suggesting that gold prices may continue to experience high volatility.

Conservative investors may choose to remain观望, while aggressive investors may consider a strategy of buying on dips and holding positions. Particularly after a rapid release of bearish sentiment, better buying opportunities may emerge for investors. Silver, platinum, and palladium are currently moving in tandem with gold, making trading more challenging. Gold continues to play a stabilizing role as the cornerstone of the precious metals market. Investors should monitor when gold returns to an upward trend and wait for the right timing to act.

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