Goldman Sachs Predicts New "Growth-Driven" Phase for Chinese Stock Market, Forecasts 30% Upside in Next Two Years!

Stock News
10/22

Goldman Sachs' latest research report suggests that, supported by market-oriented policies, corporate earnings growth, and strong capital inflows, the benchmark stock index in China could achieve a 30% increase by the end of 2027. 「We now believe the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is likely to be more sustainable,」 wrote the strategists, including Kinger Lau, in a report released on Wednesday. Currently, the Chinese stock market is entering a phase of steady ascent with less volatility, indicating a shift in the market cycle from expectation-driven to growth-driven. Last month, Goldman Sachs strategists indicated that, given the current low valuations in the Chinese stock market, there is room for increased allocation by households and institutional investors, recommending that investors adopt a "buy on dips" strategy for Chinese equities. In July, the firm raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 points, citing improved prospects for the Sino-U.S. trade agreement. The MSCI China Index surpassed this target in early October but has since seen some pullback. Following a cooling in the rally driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, the index may experience its first monthly decline in nearly six months. Investors are currently keeping a close eye on the Fourth Plenary Session and the upcoming summit between the Chinese and U.S. presidents for clues on market prospects. Goldman Sachs pointed out that demand-side stimulus policies, AI-driven earnings growth, and sustained capital inflows both domestically and abroad are collectively driving the market upward. The bank expects Chinese corporate earnings to grow at an average annual rate of 12% over the next three years, with stock valuations projected to rise by 5%-10% from current levels. However, strategists also caution that cyclical slowdowns in the macroeconomy during the fourth quarter and renewed tariff risks 「could provide reasons for investors to take profits.」 Unless these issues worsen further, 「we still recommend maintaining positions and selectively adding during market pullbacks.」

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