SpaceX closed at $146.23, a 4.45% increase.

Despite the upside move, large options traders leaned aggressively bearish. The standout flow included a $4.69 million in-the-money put buy and a synthetic short position, suggesting institutional conviction that the rally may be unsustainable. Total bearish premium of $35.26 million overwhelmed $6.16 million in bullish flow, creating a net bearish difference of $29.11 million.

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Options Indicators

SPCX has an implied volatility of 70.24%, and with an IV percentile of 80.57%, current volatility is sitting in an elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own historical levels. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.68 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, which means option premiums are rich versus history on a percentile basis, but still not fully reflecting the magnitude of recent actual movement in the underlying.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.31.

Large Trades

A synthetic short established for a $0.76 million net debit was the largest displayed combination trade, pairing the sale of 2,500 Mar. 19, 2027 $200.00 calls with the purchase of 2,500 Mar. 19, 2027 $130.00 puts. With SPCX referenced at $146.23, both legs were out of the money at execution, and the structure is a classic bearish replacement for short stock: the long put creates downside participation while the short call helps finance the position. The strategic intent is clearly a directional bearish bet rather than simple premium collection, and the use of a long-dated expiration suggests conviction in a medium- to long-term downside view rather than a near-term hedge.

A PUT buy worth $4.69 million was the largest outright single-leg trade, consisting of 1,250 Sep. 17, 2027 $150.00 puts purchased. Given the $146.23 reference price, this strike was in the money, which makes the trade particularly notable as a more expensive but higher-delta bearish expression. Buying an in-the-money long-dated put points to a trader seeking substantial downside exposure with cleaner sensitivity to a decline in the underlying, and it can also function as portfolio protection; in either case, the trade carries a clearly bearish message. Overall sentiment across all large trades was decisively negative, with $6.16 million in bullish flow versus $35.26 million in bearish flow, leaving a net bearish difference of $29.11 million. The directional conclusion is clearly bearish, as the flow was dominated by put buying and bearish structures, while the top displayed trades both expressed downside expectations through long-dated protection or outright synthetic short positioning.

Strategy Reference

For traders seeking a low assignment probability against this bearish flow, selling the Mar. 19, 2027 $220.00 call would place the strike well above the $146.23 close while collecting elevated premium from the 70.24% implied volatility; alternatively, a bear put spread using the $150.00/$130.00 strikes in the Sep. 17, 2027 expiration can express downside risk without the full margin requirement of a synthetic short.