The spot price of London gold once again surpassed $5,000 per ounce during the morning session on February 9. This week marks the final trading week before the extended Spring Festival holiday in the domestic market. With high uncertainty in overseas geopolitical situations and signs of potential capital outflows, caution is advised for gold trading.
On the macroeconomic data front, the United States is scheduled to release CPI and non-farm payrolls data this week, which may trigger volatility in gold and other precious metals. In other data, the U.S. ISM Services PMI for January stood at 53.8, unchanged from December and matching the highest level since October 2024, exceeding market expectations, although the new orders index showed a slowdown. U.S. ADP employment increased by 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000, indicating signs of weakening momentum in the labor market. U.S. JOLTS job openings for December were 6.542 million, the lowest level since September 2020, below the expected 7.25 million and the previous figure of 6.928 million. In news, Federal Reserve Governor Miren, typically seen as dovish, stated that interest rates need to be cut by more than 100 basis points this year and expressed anticipation for upcoming performance from Wash. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding agreement negotiated by President Trump and Senate Democrats, raising hopes for an end to the partial government shutdown.
Geopolitically, tensions persist in the Gulf region. U.S.-Iran negotiations in Oman failed to yield effective consensus, and the possibility of conflict between the two countries remains.
Currently, the market is pinning hopes on geopolitical developments, but the unpredictability of such situations may increase the difficulty of forecasting market trends. Recent movements in precious metals suggest that volatility is unlikely to decrease, yet the overall trend remains unclear. It is recommended to exercise caution in trading before the holiday and maintain light positions.