The global gold market closed September with a notable decline, defying many investors' expectations that it would rally on the back of the Federal Reserve's policy shift. Spot gold rebounded on Wednesday (September 30) but ultimately failed to sustain its gains and closed slightly lower at $4,156 per ounce, posting a monthly decline of 6.6%.

Meanwhile, continuously rising energy prices, the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and a complex mix of U.S. economic data have collectively shaped gold's current awkward position. On the surface, lower-than-expected inflation data should have provided solid support for gold prices, but in reality, the rise in energy costs overshadowed this positive factor, once again putting pressure on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective on the daily chart, gold staged a rebound yesterday, briefly piercing through the 5-day moving average but failing to break above it effectively, ultimately closing in negative territory. This indicates that the market remains biased toward a corrective pullback, with a strong inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar. If the dollar maintains its recovery expectations, gold will struggle to reverse course. The 5-day moving average has now shifted down to around 4,180. If prices continue to face pressure at this level, the center of gravity will keep moving lower, potentially forming a bearish continuation pattern and further opening downside space. On the downside, key focus should be on the previous daily low region of 4,110-4,100. A direct breakdown is unlikely in the short term, but medium-term risks of a breach still exist.

On the 4-hour chart, gold faced pressure around 4,200 yesterday. It was briefly boosted by data stimulus but then gave back all gains, falling back to 4,150 and breaking below the 4-hour chart moving averages, returning to weak consolidation. For intraday upside, resistance is seen at the 4,180 moving average zone, with strong resistance still at 4,200. On the downside, 4,120 is the first level to watch, with core support remaining in the 4,110-4,100 region. Investors should note that the above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading based on this information carries risks that investors must bear themselves.