Zhongtai Securities released a research report noting that CRIC published the TOP 100 real estate companies sales ranking for August 2025, with the top 100 developers recording a 19.2% year-over-year decline in single-month full-caliber sales amount. While various real estate industry sales data from January to August 2025 remain at low levels, expectations are building for marginal recovery signs following policy relaxation. Overall, the policy tone of "stopping decline and stabilizing" continues, with core city housing purchase policies being continuously optimized and market confidence showing some recovery. It is expected that as policies for stabilizing sales and funding continue to be implemented, the industry is poised to welcome bottom stabilization. The report recommends focusing on Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), Chengtou Holdings (600649.SH), Huafa Industrial (600325.SH), GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123), among others.
Zhongtai Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:
Industry: Sales declined month-over-month, policy maintains easing stance The top 100 real estate companies achieved cumulative sales of 220.2 billion yuan in August, down 19.2% year-over-year and 2.8% month-over-month, with sales data declining sequentially. In August, various regions continued to relax housing purchase thresholds, with "destocking" policies emerging frequently. Overall, following the Central Political Bureau meeting's tone-setting on the new real estate situation, all real estate policies have continued to ease. It is expected that with the continuous introduction of related policies, sales fundamentals are likely to improve.
Real estate companies: Some developers showed single-month year-over-year growth, TOP 6-15 ranked companies performed slightly stronger The number of real estate companies with single-month sales exceeding 10 billion yuan was 4, one less than the same period last year. China Merchants Shekou achieved full-caliber sales of 19.5 billion yuan in the single month, while COLI and Poly Development achieved sales of 18.4 billion yuan and 18 billion yuan respectively, ranking in the industry's top three. From a sales growth perspective, TOP 6-15 ranked companies in August outperformed other tiers, while TOP 1-5, TOP 16-30, and TOP 31-100 all showed declining trends. Among the TOP 30 real estate companies, 11 companies achieved positive sales growth, with Pudong Development Group and Bangtai Group recording year-over-year growth rates of 2,120.0% and 195.2% respectively.
Investment Recommendations While various real estate industry sales data from January to August 2025 remain at low levels, expectations are building for marginal recovery signs following policy relaxation. Overall, the policy tone of "stopping decline and stabilizing" continues, with core city housing purchase policies being continuously optimized and market confidence showing some recovery. It is expected that as policies for stabilizing sales and funding continue to be implemented, the industry is poised to welcome bottom stabilization. The report continues to be optimistic about medium to long-term allocation opportunities in the real estate sector, recommending focus on developers with layouts in first and second-tier cities, stable fundamentals, and high safety margins, including Binjiang Group, Chengtou Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, Huafa Industrial, and Poly Development. For Hong Kong stocks, attention can be paid to GREENTOWN CHINA, YUEXIU PROPERTY, and China Resources Land, which have valuation advantages and are flexible leading companies.
Risk Warning Sales may fall short of expectations, real estate policy easing may be less than expected, and publicly available materials used in the research report may carry risks of information lag or untimely updates.