GTHT issued a research report maintaining an "Overweight" rating on PICC P&C (02328), assigning a 2025 P/B ratio of 1.6x and a target price of HK$22.82. The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 surged 50.5% year-on-year, driven by improved underwriting profitability and investment performance. Underwriting profit reached RMB14.865 billion (+130.7% YoY), while total investment income stood at RMB35.9 billion (+33.0% YoY). By Q3 2025, shareholders' equity grew 12.3% from the beginning of the year, demonstrating steady growth.

GTHT maintains its 2025-2027 EPS forecasts at RMB2.14, RMB2.40, and RMB2.55, respectively, citing balanced asset-liability synergy as a key driver for sustained profit growth.

In the first three quarters of 2025, PICC P&C's premium income rose 3.5% YoY, with motor insurance premiums up 3.1% (supported by stable vehicle ownership growth and premium stabilization) and non-motor insurance premiums increasing 3.8% (led by health and accident insurance). The combined ratio (COR) improved by 2.1 percentage points YoY to 96.1%, attributed to reduced catastrophe payouts and stricter cost controls. Q3 2025 standalone COR was 99.1% (underwriting loss in the same period last year). By segment, motor insurance COR stood at 94.8% (-2.0ppt YoY), while non-motor insurance COR was 98.0% (-2.5ppt YoY).

GTHT expects continued efficacy of PICC P&C's cost-control measures, supporting its 2025 underwriting profit targets: motor insurance COR below 96% and non-motor insurance COR under 99%.

Boosted by capital market gains and optimized asset allocation—including increased exposure to high-quality equities—the company delivered an annualized total investment return of 5.4% (+0.8ppt YoY) for the first three quarters of 2025. Equity market recovery and significant expense ratio improvements are seen as potential stock price catalysts.