Abstract

Waste Connections will report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, 2026 Post Market, with investors focused on revenue growth near mid-single digits, margin resilience, and the trajectory of adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Market expectations for the current quarter point to revenue of 2.35 billion US dollars, EBIT of 448.70 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 1.18, with respective year-over-year growth of 5.90%, 9.97%, and 9.61%. The company’s forecast implies continued operating leverage and pricing discipline, while consensus anticipates stable-to-improving profitability; year-over-year comparisons support a modest expansion in adjusted EPS and EBIT margin.

The main business is expected to benefit from steady solid-waste pricing and volume normalization, with collections, landfills, and transfer operations forming the backbone of growth. The most promising segment remains high-value municipal and commercial collection routes, supported by pricing above inflation and ongoing tuck-in acquisitions that add density and yield; investors should watch for mid-single-digit growth with improving drop-through.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Waste Connections delivered revenue of 2.37 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 42.52%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.26 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 10.89%, and adjusted EPS of 1.29, with revenue growing 5.00% year over year and adjusted EPS up 11.21%.

A notable highlight was better-than-expected operating performance, with EBIT of 516.58 million US dollars, exceeding consensus and signaling solid cost execution. By business mix, collection generated 6.75 billion US dollars, landfill 1.54 billion US dollars, and transfer 1.46 billion US dollars on a trailing basis, underscoring the importance of core solid waste operations and network density to sustained growth.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core solid-waste operations

The company’s core solid-waste franchise—collection, landfill, and transfer—should set the tone for this quarter. Street estimates imply roughly 5.90% year-over-year revenue growth to 2.35 billion US dollars and continued EBIT expansion to 448.70 million US dollars, reflecting pricing traction and incremental volumes. Margin conversation centers on balancing inflation pass-through with route optimization and fuel, labor, and maintenance expense containment. With the prior quarter showing gross margin at 42.52% and net margin at 10.89%, investors are watching for stable gross margin and a slight uplift in EBIT margin as mix and price over volume carry the quarter.

Most promising growth vectors

The most promising earnings drivers continue to be densification through acquisitions and contracted municipal/commercial collection work. Tuck-in deals can add immediate route density, enhancing utilization and reducing cost per stop, which tends to improve flow-through to EBIT. Additionally, high-value contracts, including those with CPI-linked escalators, offer price durability and help offset inflationary costs. Management’s prior-year revenue mix shows a concentration in collection, which historically supports outsized returns when integrated with nearby transfer and landfill assets; this vertically integrated footprint typically yields better incremental margins.

Key stock-price swing factors

The stock’s near-term performance will likely hinge on adjusted EPS delivery versus the 1.18 estimate and commentary on price realization. Any affirmation that price increases are sticking—and that volumes are stabilizing—would support a constructive reaction. Watch management’s update on commodity-sensitive lines and energy-linked items, such as recycling and E&P-related activity, which can create small swings versus plan. Capex cadence, labor availability, and any color on acquisition pipelines can also tilt sentiment, given their impact on free cash flow conversion and forward margin shape.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews and ratings updates, the majority of analyst opinions tilt bullish, citing resilient pricing, constructive volume trends, and consistent execution into the first quarter of 2026. Notable institutional commentary emphasizes that mid-single-digit revenue growth with high single-digit adjusted EPS growth would confirm steady margin improvement. Analysts also point to the company’s M&A playbook and integration track record as supportive of above-peer predictability. The prevailing view holds that if the company meets or slightly exceeds the 2.35 billion US dollars revenue and 1.18 adjusted EPS benchmarks while maintaining disciplined cost control, shares should be well supported by the outlook for continued EBIT growth around 10%.