Today, the commodities futures market continued the sharp adjustment pattern seen on Friday. As of the time of writing, multiple precious metals and non-ferrous metal varieties have hit limit-down, and crude oil prices also touched limit-down shortly after the afternoon session opened. So, what factors should be watched in the short and long term for crude oil? Can the previous rebound in the chemical sector continue?

The recent driving factors for crude oil include: 1. Geopolitical fluctuations: The US-Iran situation was previously highly tense, but recently the US has sent messages to Iran, expressing a willingness to hold meetings with Iran and engage in negotiations to reach an agreement. Iran has also stated that it "remains confident" about reaching a nuclear agreement with the US. Short-term geopolitical premiums have somewhat receded. 2. Persistent supply-side pressure: OPEC+ member countries agreed to maintain the policy of pausing production increases, keeping crude oil output unchanged in March, and emphasized that they may partially or fully restore 1.65 million barrels per day of production in a phased manner based on market changes. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has indicated that output from its Tengiz oil field has recovered. The fundamental structure of oversupply in the crude oil market remains unchanged.

Currently, the key point of contention in the short-term crude oil market still lies in the geopolitical direction of the Iran situation. In the medium to long term, the pressure from oversupply is likely to remain the core factor affecting oil prices. Furthermore, the magnitude of the recent rebound in oil prices has nearly reached the level of risk premium brought by the Iran-Israel conflict in June last year, warranting attention to downside risks. However, if the geopolitical situation develops beyond expectations, oil price volatility may still contain uncertainties. Looking ahead, changes on the supply side should be monitored, including the production policies of major producers and the impact of geopolitics on supply. From a chart perspective, oil prices have fallen rapidly, breaking below multiple moving averages on the hourly chart; support near the lower end of the震荡区间 (trading range) can be referenced.

For other chemical products, the main drivers of the previous rally included cost-side support from the crude oil rebound amid geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices triggered by cold weather in North America, and rotational effects within the sector on the charts. Currently, with the rapid retreat in oil prices, cost support may be weakening. Additionally, attention should be paid to the verification of downstream demand around the Spring Festival holiday; short-term prices for some varieties may face pressure. Looking forward, the expectation of "anti-involution" this year is noteworthy. Some varieties have expectations of large-scale maintenance and production cuts, so the interplay between long-term and short-term logic still needs to be watched.