Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 revealed that June witnessed month-on-month declines in new home prices across all city tiers among China's 70 major cities. However, year-on-year price contraction narrowed nationwide, extending a trend observed throughout the first half where newly built commercial housing sales area declines similarly moderated.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighted during a State Council press conference that city-specific regulatory measures introduced this year have effectively propelled the real estate sector toward stabilization. While acknowledging market fluctuations during the first half, Sheng emphasized the overall trajectory points toward recovery. "Market bottoming requires time," he noted, "and volatility during this transition phase remains normal – necessitating reinforced efforts to achieve full stabilization."

Price indicators demonstrate tangible policy impact. Though new home prices fluctuated across tier-one, tier-two, and tier-three cities, their annual contraction narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared with May. Similarly, existing home prices in tier-two and tier-three cities saw annual declines narrow by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points.

Transaction metrics reinforce this stabilizing trend. National new home sales area fell 3.5% year-on-year during the first half – 15.5 percentage points less severe than the same period last year. Sales value dropped 5.5%, a 19.5-percentage-point improvement over H1 2023. Sheng particularly highlighted resurgent secondary market activity, stating "commercial property transactions remain relatively active, especially for existing homes where volumes actually increased year-on-year."

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, confirmed the consolidation pattern: "The stabilization trajectory remains intact. Both new and existing home prices show narrowing annual declines since last year, while new home sales volume and value contractions have entered single-digit territory after three years of correction, signaling approaching market bottom."

Despite progress, Sheng cautioned that persistent declines in sales area and value necessitate further policy support. Analysts foresee continued market divergence. Cao Jingjing of China Index Academy projected core cities would stabilize through high-quality new projects but noted constraints including weak income growth, subdued price expectations, and significant substitution effects from existing homes. "Structural opportunities will emerge in premium cities with superior housing projects," she observed.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, anticipates intensified property support measures in H2, including expanded affordable housing acquisitions, accelerated urban renewal initiatives, faster loan disbursements for "white list" development projects, and potential mortgage rate reductions following policy rate cuts.