CLSA has published a research report maintaining a target price of HK$10.7 for CHOW TAI FOOK (01929) and a "Hold" rating. The firm noted that CHOW TAI FOOK's retail sales and same-store sales growth for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 remained resilient. However, growth slowed in July due to a decline in foot traffic attributed to weather conditions and the World Cup event.

Retail sales in Mainland China and the Hong Kong/Macau markets increased by 10.7% year-on-year and 44.8% year-on-year, respectively. Same-store sales growth also showed a recovery, rising by 19.6% year-on-year in Mainland China and 41.7% year-on-year in Hong Kong/Macau. In Mainland China, net store closures for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 were 258, lower than the 311 closures in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Unlike the previous year, weight-based pricing gold products outperformed fixed-price products.

Key Expectations

The company maintains its fiscal year 2027 sales guidance of mid-to-high single-digit growth and its net profit forecast remains unchanged. If gold prices stay around US$4,100 per ounce, gross profit margin and operating profit margin may experience fluctuations due to a potential shift in sales towards more weight-based pricing products. Nevertheless, net profit could remain stable, supported by hedging gains.