The Samsung S&P GSCI Crude Oil ER Futures ETF (SEHK: 3175) surged nearly 6% again in today's trading session. At the time of writing, the ETF was up 5.94% to HK$9.72, with a trading turnover of HK$1.7018 million.

Market Drivers and Analysis

The catalyst for the move stems from recent geopolitical developments. On July 13 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated at the White House that he still believes a deal with Iran is possible, noting that "Iran wants to make a deal and they've reinitiated contact." However, Trump simultaneously announced that U.S. forces will continue to launch strong strikes against Iran to significantly degrade its ability to influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the U.S. is reinstating a maritime blockade specifically targeting Iran, meaning any vessel conducting business with Iran will be barred from passage, while ships from other nations can proceed normally.

Following these remarks, international crude oil prices staged a powerful rally in early Asian hours on July 14, with intraday gains expanding to as much as 10%.

Analyst Perspective on Price Impact

Analysts at Qisheng Futures commented that the extent to which geopolitical risks support oil prices ultimately depends on whether they lead to a tangible impact on crude supply. They noted that the current U.S.-Iran conflict is relatively large in scale and frequent, suggesting its effect on the Strait of Hormuz is likely a short-term disruption. If the conflict escalates, prompting extreme retaliation from Iran and leading the U.S. to once again block Iran's maritime oil export channels, the crude market could face a new round of supply shortages, potentially driving a sustained rise in oil prices. Conversely, if the situation remains limited to short-term friction, any price rebound is likely to be temporary.