One Year After New Online Lending Rules Took Effect: Profits Plunge and the Industry Splits

Deep News
10/16

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Spots are limited, so act fast. Let us go together to this appointment with sustainability! [Click to register] One year after the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Commercial Banks' Internet Loan Facilitation Business and Improving the Quality and Efficiency of Financial Services" (hereinafter referred to as the "new loan facilitation rules") took effect, it is still continuously affecting the loan facilitation business. On October 15, based on the latest 2026 interim reports released by five listed loan facilitation companies, including Qifu Technology, FinVolution Group, LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: LX), Jiayin Group, and Xiaoying Technology, the industry's transformation path under regulatory guidance was observed. It is not hard to find that over the past year, listed loan facilitation companies have generally begun to control volume and guard against risks, revenue from traditional loan facilitation businesses has come under pressure, profits have clearly plunged, and performance divergence among institutions has continued to intensify. While shrinking domestic consumer credit lending, many platforms have stepped up efforts in overseas business and non-credit services, seeking new growth pillars amid the pain.

Leading players slowed down while smaller players posted losses. In the first half of 2026, the revenue, net profit, and loan volume of the five institutions generally contracted, and the diverging pattern of slowing leaders and loss-making laggards became even clearer. According to statistics, during the reporting period, the five loan facilitation platforms recorded combined revenue of about 24.25 billion yuan and combined net profit of about 2.289 billion yuan, including one loss-making institution. In more detail, on the revenue side, the three leading institutions, Qifu Technology, FinVolution Group, and LexinFintech Holdings Ltd., remained firmly at the top, recording revenue of 7.476 billion yuan, 6.613 billion yuan, and 6.496 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for nearly 85% of the total revenue of the five companies. They were followed by Xiaoying Technology and Jiayin Group, with revenue of 2.17 billion yuan and 1.494 billion yuan, respectively. Compared with the same period a year earlier, revenue at all five loan facilitation platforms declined year on year, with most drops concentrated above 20%. The largest decline was at Jiayin Group, whose revenue fell 59.2% year on year, while LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. had the smallest decline, with revenue down 2.91% year on year. The gap on the net profit side was even more obvious. Financial report data show that, calculated under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), Qifu Technology posted a first-half net profit of 1.281 billion yuan, down more than 60% year on year, including a single-quarter net profit of 401 million yuan in the second quarter. Qifu Technology also mentioned in its financial report that about 500 million yuan in non-recurring tax expenses in the quarter was an important one-time factor behind the sharp profit decline. Next, FinVolution Group recorded a first-half net profit of about 848 million yuan, down 43.1% year on year. In addition, during the reporting period, LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. posted net profit attributable to shareholders of 303 million yuan, and Xiaoying Technology posted net profit of 85 million yuan, down 67.8% and 91.4% year on year, respectively. Among the five companies, Jiayin Group turned from profit to loss, with a first-half net loss of 245 million yuan, compared with a profit of 1.059 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. This was also the first interim loss since Jiayin Group went public. Through the data, it is easy to see that proactively reducing high-risk customer groups and strictly controlling new lending became a unified move among industry institutions. In the second quarter of 2026, the five loan facilitation platforms facilitated a total of about 184.7 billion yuan in loans, generally contracting except for LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.. Among them, Qifu Technology facilitated 63.377 billion yuan in loans, and FinVolution Group facilitated 44.8 billion yuan in loans, down 25.1% and 17% year on year, respectively; LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. facilitated 55.4 billion yuan in loans in the second quarter, up 4.8% year on year. As of June 30, 2026, Qifu Technology had 107.562 billion yuan in outstanding loans, LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. had 93.7 billion yuan in outstanding loans, FinVolution Group had 67.9 billion yuan in outstanding loans, and Xiaoying Technology had 24.97 billion yuan in outstanding loans. Wang Pengbo, chief analyst at Botong Consulting, told reporters that the first-half 2026 performance of the five listed loan facilitation institutions can be seen as a concentrated realization of the first full half-year after the new rules took effect, reflected in the industry's overall balance sheet contraction and simultaneous declines in revenue and net profit. Specifically, the top three held onto their revenue base, while other institutions saw larger declines, and some companies entered a loss range. At the same time, it can also be seen that industry concentration is rising. "The dual pressure on revenue and net profit marks that the industry has officially bid farewell to the era of extensive growth. The core reason for this cliff-like decline is that the new loan facilitation rules reshaped the industry's pricing logic and risk-sharing mechanism," said Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University.

Institutions proactively controlled volume and guarded against risk exactly as the new loan facilitation rules reached their one-year anniversary. Regarding changes in performance, interviews with multiple parties showed that they mainly stemmed from a reshaping of the business logic of the loan facilitation industry. In past years, many institutions in the industry pursued rapid expansion of loan volume, but now listed loan facilitation institutions are proactively abandoning the scale race, taking volume control and risk prevention as their core strategy, continuously reducing high-risk customer groups, tightening new credit lending, and optimizing the structure of existing assets. As a person in charge at a loan facilitation platform said in an interview, "One year after the new rules took effect, the biggest change in the industry is the switch in operational focus. Under the current policy environment, industry institutions are proactively reducing risk exposure and shrinking scale. The operational focus has shifted from previous scale expansion to asset quality control, and asset quality has generally improved. Although revenue and profit have declined overall, it can also be seen from financial data that cash reserves and other buffers are relatively ample, providing a certain capacity to withstand risk." From the financial report data, although the loan facilitation industry generally contracted, there were still bright spots in performance. For example, LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.'s installment e-commerce platform service revenue reached 1.308 billion yuan in the first half, up 68.6% year on year; in the second quarter, FinVolution Group's overseas segment revenue reached 930 million yuan, up 18% year on year, rising to 27% of the company's total revenue, with overseas transaction volume reaching 3.8 billion yuan, up 18.8% year on year. By the end of the second quarter, Jiayin Group's cash and cash equivalents had risen sharply to 504 million yuan, and overseas business became an important direction for transformation. A certain loan facilitation platform told reporters, "In fintech business, we are advancing the external output of technological capabilities, continuously deepening cooperation with financial institutions, and promoting steady growth in business scale. At present, both the loan volume and outstanding loan balance of related businesses have achieved month-on-month growth; in overseas business, this year we are further entering the Latin American market and continuously deepening localized operations in the UK and Latin American markets, constantly accumulating market understanding and iterating risk management models. At the same time, we are also actively advancing license applications, team building, and business exploration in Southeast Asian markets, and expect more substantive progress in the second half of the year." Wang Pengbo pointed out, "From the industry perspective, the biggest change is abandoning the idea of scale first and shifting the business focus to volume control. Institutions are proactively clearing out non-compliant, high-risk customer groups, adjusting the structure of joint lending and loan facilitation businesses, returning their business positioning to technology and risk control service providers, and simultaneously restructuring funding cooperation channels." However, Wang Pengbo also predicted that institutions will continue to face transformation pressure because the new profit model has not yet been stably proven, funding parties' access standards continue to tighten, risks from existing historical assets will continue to be released, and costs brought by customer acquisition and compliance transformation will continue to be occupied. In his view, leading institutions have ample asset reserves and controllable risk exposure, while institutions with a higher proportion of lower-tier customer groups face greater pressure from existing assets.

Seeking new growth points amid prudence. The pain still exists, and the shock is not over yet. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, most listed loan facilitation companies still have not given optimistic expectations. According to financial reports, Qifu Technology expects third-quarter net profit of 360 million to 460 million yuan; FinVolution Group expects to maintain full-year revenue of 11.5 billion to 12.9 billion yuan, but also mentioned that third-quarter domestic transaction volume will contract significantly; LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. expects third-quarter loan volume to decline significantly quarter on quarter and may record a net loss. FinVolution Group also mentioned, "Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect China transaction volume to contract significantly. However, although the domestic business faces certain pressure in the second half, the company remains confident in its full-year operating targets. At present, we maintain our full-year revenue guidance unchanged, mainly based on two considerations: first, first-half performance progress was better than expected, providing a good foundation for the full-year target; second, overseas business continues to grow, which can provide some support against the phased pressure on the domestic business." LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. said that looking ahead, given continued industry and regulatory uncertainty, total loan issuance in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to decline significantly quarter on quarter, and the company may appropriately adjust its performance outlook according to changing circumstances. According to financial reports, Qifu Technology distributed an interim dividend of US$0.46 per American Depositary Share (ADS), FinVolution Group repurchased a cumulative US$66.8 million in the first half, and Xiaoying Technology continued to distribute a half-year dividend of US$0.28 per ADS; LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. adjusted cash dividends to be assessed and paid annually. Regarding the industry's subsequent direction, Wang Pengbo judged that industry scale is highly likely to continue to shrink in the second half, with performance continuing under pressure. "Funding parties will continue to screen cooperation targets, weak-qualification loan facilitation institutions will gradually exit cooperation lists, and industry consolidation will continue to advance. If institutions want to improve profitability, they must control customer acquisition costs, shift to existing customer operations, and optimize the cost structure of middle and back offices. If they want to improve asset quality, they must perfect the full-process risk control system, pre-position customer access, and establish overdue warning mechanisms." The aforementioned person in charge at a loan facilitation platform predicted that the loan facilitation industry has already bid farewell to the old era of relying on scale expansion, and the market will concentrate toward leading enterprises with strong compliance capabilities, sufficient technological reserves, and fast transformation speed. In the second half of 2026, industry institutions need to adhere to the bottom line of compliant operations. Recently, 15 loan facilitation platforms have submitted special audit reports issued by independent third-party professional institutions as required on "whether credit funds have been misappropriated," strengthening industry institutions' main responsibility for fund safety and serving as a real step in the shift from self-discipline to compliance. Subsequently, loan facilitation platforms will still accelerate transformation. It can be seen that AI technology external output business and overseas business are gradually achieving growth in the industry and are becoming new business growth points.

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