Payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) reported on Tuesday that the US labor market is showing further signs of weakness as layoffs accelerated over the past four weeks.

The company's continuously updated data revealed that private businesses shed an average of 13,500 jobs weekly during the past four weeks. This marks a significant deterioration from the previous week's reported loss of 2,500 jobs per week.

With government shutdowns continuing to disrupt official data releases, alternative indicators from sources like ADP are filling gaps in the economic picture. Government agencies including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports like the monthly nonfarm payrolls won't be available until December.

Federal Reserve policymakers will convene again from December 9-10 with limited conventional data for forecasting. However, recent comments from multiple officials advocating further rate cuts have led markets to recalibrate expectations, now anticipating a rate reduction at next month's meeting.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius noted in a client report on Sunday: "With the next jobs report scheduled for December 16 and CPI data due December 18, there's virtually nothing in the current calendar that would prevent a December 10 rate cut."

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported better-than-expected September job growth of 119,000 last week, Hatzius expects "alternative indicators will show renewed job losses in October" when regular data releases resume.

Goldman's research team predicts the Fed will respond with a December rate cut, followed by two additional 25-basis-point reductions in 2026.