On September 4, the initial shift was triggered solely by a single event within the bond market. ZFX山海证券 notes that whether this phase transition can be sustained depends on whether the scope of participation expands in tandem. Meanwhile, improved allocation demand could bolster the resilience of price support levels, yet yields, the US dollar, and futures positioning may still amplify short-term volatility.

From ZFX山海证券's perspective, supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and liquidity are all interconnected, and a change in any single component could prompt the market to recalibrate its valuation framework. Observing gold capital flows can be broken down into three layers: scale, frequency, and the structure of participation. If scale expansion is not supported by increased usage frequency and broad participation, its impact is often difficult to sustain over the long term.

The next phase will shift toward continuous data validation. ZFX山海证券 believes that only when demand remains stable, execution runs smoothly, and risk indicators stay under control will the current shifts gain a more durable foundation; otherwise, the market may revert to its prior rhythm.