Abstract

Li Auto-W will announce second-quarter 2026 results on August 26, 2026 post-Market. Our preview consolidates the company’s last reported quarter and the current quarter’s forecasts, with an emphasis on revenue trajectory, profitability dynamics, and segment outlook supported by recent institutional commentary.

Market Forecast

Consensus derived from the company’s current-quarter forecast implies revenue of 25.08 billion RMB, down 17.31% year over year, with an estimated EBIT loss of 2.00 billion RMB and an estimated EPS of -0.44; the year-over-year change in EPS implies a 144.22% deterioration. Margin commentary points to ongoing pressure, with profitability likely to remain negative; adjusted EPS is expected to remain in loss territory. The company’s main business remains vehicle manufacturing, and the outlook highlights stabilization efforts via model-cycle updates and cost control. The most promising segment remains premium EVs within the vehicle manufacturing business, where management targets a gradual sequential recovery in deliveries; revenue is implied within the 25.08 billion RMB forecast with a double-digit year-over-year decline.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Li Auto-W reported revenue of 22.98 billion RMB, a gross profit margin of 7.87%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.29 billion RMB, a net profit margin of -9.96%, and adjusted EPS of -1.05, with revenue down 11.36% year over year and EPS declining 438.71% year over year. Vehicle manufacturing delivered 22.98 billion RMB of revenue and remained the core business line, though demand softness and product-transition effects weighed on volume and margin.

A key highlight was the company’s continued emphasis on optimizing inventory and refining its product lineup to prepare for the next phase of model launches, which impacted short-term profitability but aimed to protect brand positioning. Within main business highlights, vehicle manufacturing accounted for essentially all revenue at 22.98 billion RMB; year-over-year growth was -11.36% amid lower deliveries and promotional intensity.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Vehicle manufacturing

The headline forecast of 25.08 billion RMB revenue suggests a sequential uptick from the prior quarter’s 22.98 billion RMB, even as year-over-year pressure persists. The estimated EBIT loss of 2.00 billion RMB and EPS of -0.44 indicate that margin recovery is still in progress, with product mix and promotional activities likely to cap gross margin improvement in the near term. Management’s operational focus appears to be on reducing discounts while supporting volumes through refreshed trims and targeted campaigns, which could lift average selling prices gradually if demand stabilizes.

Price competition in China’s premium NEV market remains the key swing factor for quarterly profitability. If discounting intensity eases and supply chain costs remain contained, gross profit margin could improve from the prior quarter’s 7.87%. However, if competitive pressures persist, net profit margin could remain negative, consistent with the current estimate trajectory. Investors will be watching whether the company can convert the sequential revenue rebound into operating leverage that narrows losses.

Most promising business: Premium EVs within the vehicle manufacturing portfolio

The premium segment’s revenue is embedded within the total forecast, but its contribution remains central to the brand’s positioning and ability to improve mix. The strategy emphasizes higher-end configurations and advanced driver-assistance features, which can support pricing power relative to mass-market peers. A gradual delivery recovery, supported by model-cycle refreshes, is anticipated to underpin a sequential lift in revenue even as year-over-year comparisons remain difficult.

Sustained execution in the premium tier can help offset industry-wide price pressure through value-added features and software-enabled options over time. The near-term path to margin improvement likely relies on stabilizing incentives, improving manufacturing yields on refreshed models, and maintaining a disciplined order-to-delivery cadence. Success in the premium tier will also influence investor sentiment on scale and cost absorption later in the year.

Stock-price drivers this quarter

Volume stabilization and pricing discipline are likely the most consequential drivers for the shares. A positive surprise on deliveries relative to internal targets, accompanied by firmer gross margin, would support the equity narrative of improving unit economics. Conversely, signs of prolonged markdowns, inventory accumulation, or heavier-than-expected spending on marketing could pressure EBIT and extend the timeline to breakeven at the operating level.

Operating expense trajectory will be another focal point. The current forecasted EBIT loss of 2.00 billion RMB implies continued investment in R&D and sales infrastructure; any indication of tighter cost control without compromising the product roadmap may be received favorably. Finally, updates on new model launch timing and software feature rollout cadence could tilt expectations for second-half mix and margin progression.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst commentary over the past months skews cautious, reflecting concerns about sustained price competition and the pace of demand recovery in China’s premium NEV segment. Several institutions frame the upcoming print as a transition quarter, emphasizing sequential stabilization but warning that year-over-year declines in revenue and earnings per share may weigh on sentiment. The majority view anticipates that losses will narrow only gradually, with operating leverage improving in the second half if discounting abates.

Well-followed brokerages highlight mixed catalysts: potential delivery momentum from refreshed lineups versus the risk of additional incentives to defend share. The cautious camp argues that while the forecast revenue of 25.08 billion RMB implies sequential improvement, margin visibility remains limited given industry dynamics. Institutions expect management to guide conservatively on profitability, focusing on product competitiveness and operational efficiency as the levers for recovery.

In line with the cautious majority, we interpret institutional views as waiting for clearer evidence of margin recovery and sustained delivery growth before revising outlooks more constructively. The central debate remains whether the company can execute a profitable scale-up in a market where pricing remains fluid; until stronger confirmation emerges on gross margin expansion and net loss reduction, the balance of opinions remains cautious.