Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) increased by 6.9% year-on-year in September.

Signs of a broader regional recovery in electronics exports are gaining momentum, bolstered by strong data from Singapore in September.

Both RHB and UOB underscored that the latest figures reinforce momentum in the sector. RHB noted rising global semiconductor sales and an uptick in electronics and electrical (E&E) exports from key Asian exporters, including Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.

UOB highlighted strengthening forward indicators, such as Singapore’s September purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which showed overall growth at 50.6 and specific expansion in electronics at 50.9.

September's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 6.9% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, significantly surpassing Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of a 2.1% contraction.

Electronics exports stood out, soaring by 30.4% year-on-year. RHB identified integrated circuits (+34.9%), PCs (+58.3%), and disk media (+42.9%) as key growth drivers, while UOB noted an increase in consumer electronics (+26.1%), attributing this to AI-related demand spillover into mainstream devices and heightened memory shipments.

Non-electronics NODX rose modestly by 0.4% year-on-year. RHB highlighted non-monetary gold (+82.7%) and specialized machinery (+14.1%) as significant contributors.

Geographically, UOB reported a 10.1% rebound in shipments to China, while exports to the U.S. continued to decline for the fifth consecutive month, contracting by 9.9% year-on-year—though this was an improvement compared to August's -29.1%.

RHB similarly noted that East Asian markets continued to support growth, even as demand from the U.S. remained weak.

Both banks maintained their NODX growth forecasts within the official range of 1–3%. RHB kept its projection at +2.0% and recently upgraded its full-year GDP forecast to 3.0%, suggesting that fourth-quarter growth could approach 2.0% year-on-year, pushing annual expansion slightly above 3%.

UOB also retained its expectations for 2025 and 2026 NODX growth within the 1–3% range, in line with the year-to-date increase of 2.2%.

However, both banks cautioned about potential headwinds. RHB advised against "popping the bottle too early," citing unresolved trade uncertainties.

These uncertainties include the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court review of the legality of global tariffs (scheduled for November 5), potential new trade tensions between the U.S. and China—such as possible Chinese rare earth export controls—and growing risks of sector-specific tariffs, particularly impacting pharmaceutical exports to the U.S.

UOB pointed to potential front-loading of shipments ahead of expected U.S. semiconductor tariffs and noted the mid-October postponement of proposed 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceutical imports from the U.S.

With NODX growth at 2.2% year-to-date, both banks indicated that Enterprise Singapore might consider revising its full-year guidance if strong export trends continue through Q4.