During Wednesday's pre-market trading, shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) experienced a slight decline. However, in the previous session, the stock managed to close higher against the backdrop of a broad sell-off in the chip sector, demonstrating notable relative strength.
Technical analysis indicates that the stock price has found support around the $200 level, with the 200-day moving average near $191 acting as a critical line of defense below. Concurrently, the options market has seen a significant build-up of bullish bets, with trading volume in short-term call options far exceeding that of put options. This suggests that some traders are positioning for a near-term price advance.
The shift in valuation metrics is equally noteworthy. Since reaching its all-time high on May 14, NVIDIA's market capitalization has shed approximately $1 trillion, with the stock price declining over 18% cumulatively. This correction has pushed its forward price-to-earnings ratio down to around 18 times, marking its lowest level since early 2019 and even below the S&P 500 index's forward P/E of over 20 times.
Analysts note that this compression in valuation is not due to a deteriorating profit outlook; in fact, analysts have been consistently raising earnings estimates for the coming quarters. Instead, it reflects a rotation of artificial intelligence-related investment flows away from NVIDIA and into other segments of the semiconductor space, such as memory chip makers and equipment suppliers.
Examining the competitive landscape, despite ongoing efforts by tech giants like Google and Amazon to develop their own chips, NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem represents a formidable moat. Switching away would entail significant code rewrites and team retraining, indicating it is not a simple substitution.
The company's most recent quarterly revenue grew 70.7% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 74.2% and an operating margin of 64%, showing no apparent cracks in its fundamental performance.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating and $350 price target for NVIDIA on Wednesday, arguing that the current forward P/E of 18 times is a seven-year low and that the market's suppression of earnings expectations is unwarranted.
Nevertheless, some perspectives caution that despite the significant valuation compression, the technical picture has not yet confirmed a bottom reversal. Investors may consider waiting for clearer signals of stabilization.