Goldman Sachs has maintained its oil price forecasts while highlighting a significant increase in two-way risk, requiring investors to reassess their positioning strategies. According to trading desk sources, on April 17, Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven's team released a new crude oil market report. Against the backdrop of a sharp intraday decline in oil prices triggered by news of the "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman maintained its full-year 2026 average price forecasts for Brent crude at $83 per barrel and WTI crude at $78 per barrel.

The team's previous report had projected that Persian Gulf crude exports would return to pre-conflict levels within approximately one month. The news on Friday regarding the Strait of Hormuz triggered large-scale algorithmic unwinding of long crude oil positions. The WTI crude oil futures price fell over 11% in a single day, retreating to its lowest level since March 10.

The latest report emphasizes that, from a quarterly distribution perspective, the peak is forecast for the second quarter of 2026, with Brent expected to average $90 per barrel and WTI $87 per barrel, followed by a sequential decline each quarter, with Brent falling to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The report maintains its core assumption that "Persian Gulf oil flows will gradually normalize by mid-May."

However, the risk structure, previously characterized by Goldman as having a "significant net upside," has now rebalanced into "two-way risk." In other words, oil prices face the possibility of a sharp rise due to prolonged flow disruptions, but also significant downward pressure from weaker-than-expected demand or rapid progress in peace negotiations. This implies that the logic of a straightforward long position in crude oil needs re-evaluation, while the value of hedging instruments like options is increasing.

The report points out that if Middle East peace talks achieve substantive progress, the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in oil prices would face pressure to normalize quickly, constituting a significant near-term downside risk to the price forecast. The sharp intraday drop in oil futures on April 17 confirms the real-world impact of this logic.

Secondly, on the supply side, Goldman Sachs revised downward its estimate for March crude oil production disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Goldman now estimates that average daily crude oil disruption in the Persian Gulf region in March was 8.0 million barrels per day, lower than its mid-March expectation of 9.7 million barrels per day. By country, the current estimate includes disruptions of approximately 0.5 million barrels per day in Iran, 3.0 million in Iraq, 0.8 million in Kuwait, 0.3 million in Qatar, 2.1 million in Saudi Arabia, and 1.3 million in the United Arab Emirates.

Goldman believes that higher-than-expected storage capacity in the Middle East is a key reason why actual disruptions were lower than anticipated. This means that even if disruptions to Hormuz flows persist, their actual impact on global supply could be more moderate than initially thought, creating potential medium-term downward pressure on oil prices.

Market attention is shifting from geopolitics to economic fundamentals. Preliminary data indicate that oil demand, particularly the most price-sensitive components, is declining rapidly. Goldman notes that demand weakness is concentrated in two areas: jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks (such as naphtha and LPG). Air travel is consumption-elastic, meaning people reduce flying when oil prices are high; petrochemical feedstock demand is directly profit-driven, leading companies to cut production when product prices cannot cover high raw material costs.

Goldman provides three specific reasons for the severity of this demand response. First, the pain felt by end-consumers is amplified. Currently, global refining margins (the spread between refined products and crude oil) are at extremely high levels. This means that even if crude oil prices themselves haven't surpassed historical peaks, prices for gasoline and diesel at the pump, and chemical feedstocks for factories, have risen more sharply. Goldman calculates that with Brent around $100 per barrel, if refining margins remain at current highs, a $10 increase in refined product prices would lead to a global oil demand reduction of approximately 900,000 barrels per day after 1-2 quarters. This figure is significantly higher than the 600,000 barrels per day reduction seen when refining margins are at average levels.

Second, supply tightness and price pressures are precisely impacting the most vulnerable segments of demand and regions. Beyond jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks, more price-sensitive regions like emerging Asia and Africa are bearing a greater impact.

Third, signs of rationing and shortages are appearing in some markets. In countries with price controls, governments manage retail fuel prices through fiscal subsidies, state-owned enterprises compressing profit margins, and restricting product exports. When crude prices exceed $80 per barrel, state-owned enterprises are forced to compress their margins. However, this control model itself introduces risks of supply shortages and rationing.

Despite the increased downside risks, Goldman also emphasizes that significant upside risks for oil prices remain, primarily stemming from two scenarios. First, a low-flow situation in the Strait of Hormuz persists longer than expected. The current 92% flow deficit means each day of stalemate accumulates supply pressure; if talks fail or the situation escalates, oil prices could rise sharply. Second, permanent damage to crude oil and refined product production capacity. Potential war-related damage to Middle Eastern refineries and oil field infrastructure could mean a much longer recovery time for capacity than the market expects.

Based on Goldman's analytical framework, the core change for investors in crude oil and related assets is that the risk structure has shifted from a "significant net upside" to a true two-way博弈. In this context, the risk-reward ratio for a simple long position in crude has clearly weakened. Strategies focused on volatility, such as going long crude oil option implied volatility, and cross-commodity spreads, such as crude oil versus refined product crack spreads, may be better suited to capture the current market's structural characteristics.