CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) surged nearly 7% again, rising 5.71% to HKD 29.24 by the time of writing, with a trading volume of HKD 477 million. The rally follows recent production cuts in overseas aluminum smelting. On October 21, Century Aluminum's Grundartangi plant faced operational issues, leading to a reduction in output expected to last over six months. Additionally, Mozambique's Mozal aluminum plant may enter maintenance shutdown by March 2026.

Huatai Securities estimates that the global aluminum supply-demand gap could widen to 800,000 metric tons by 2026, potentially driving LME aluminum prices above USD 3,200 per ton next year. Tianfeng Securities notes that tightening supply-demand dynamics have significantly improved smelters' profit margins per ton, with high profitability likely to persist.

Domestically, with production capacity capped, major aluminum producers like CHINAHONGQIAO have reduced capital expenditures and shifted toward stable dividend payouts. The sector is witnessing a clear trend of increased dividend distributions this year. Analysts suggest that aluminum stocks are evolving from cyclical commodities into high-quality assets offering "price upside and dividend stability."