Is HAIXI PHARMA's "Meat Shares" Gone? Is the Listing Delayed or Forced to Abort?

Stock News
10/17

After the sudden halt of Shougang Longze's IPO on the eve of its listing in July this year, the Hong Kong stock market has seen another case of "postponed listing." On the evening of October 16, HAIXI PHARMA (02637), which had a significant pre-market surge of 25%, announced that due to the need for additional time to finalize the allocation results and obtain regulatory approval, its listing timeline would be extended. This marks the first "postponed listing" stock under the FINI system implemented this year. According to the IPO process, HAIXI PHARMA conducted its offering from October 9 to October 14, raising subscription funds reaching HK$309.4 billion, with an oversubscription ratio of 3113 times. The company intends to globally offer 11.5 million shares, with approximately 10% of the shares available for public offering in Hong Kong and about 90% for international placement. The offering price was set between HK$69.88 and HK$86.40 per share, with a minimum purchase of 50 shares. HAIXI PHARMA was originally expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 9 AM on October 17, and the announcement immediately sparked market discussions. Unlike the previous reasons for the emergency halt of Shougang Longze's IPO, HAIXI PHARMA announced the postponement after initiating dark pool trading. It has become the first new stock to delay its listing post-dark pool trading due to the failure to publish allocation results since the launch of the FINI system in 2023. This phenomenon is extremely rare amidst the current tidal wave of new stocks in the Hong Kong market, leading to various rumors following HAIXI PHARMA's announcement. Market insiders suggested that there might be issues with its international placement, such as duplicate applications from investors or participation from ineligible applicants. These rumors are not entirely unfounded. Earlier this year, the phenomenon of one mainland investor having multiple accounts was prevalent. Hong Kong residents have 9-digit ID numbers, while mainland residents have 18-digit IDs, and brokerages are required to report these ID numbers for IPO subscription applications. While Hong Kong residents report their numbers accurately, due to the differing digit lengths, mainland residents face inconsistent reporting rules among brokerages: some report the first 9 digits, others the last 9, and some use account numbers or other combinations, leading to the same mainland resident being seen as different users across multiple brokerages. Although the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission implemented new regulations in March this year to ensure that investors are identified uniquely via their Hong Kong IDs or passports to prevent multiple applications for the same new stock, the recent surge in demand for new stocks has led to suspicions of repeated applications resurfacing. In fact, previous reports indicated that certain mainland investors were applying for popular new stocks in Hong Kong using different identification documents, such as mainland IDs, Hong Kong IDs, or passports, with various brokerages. The FINI system seems still unable to identify such duplicate applications effectively. However, the company's urgent announcement seems to clarify that the reason for the postponed listing is the need for "additional time to finalize allocation results" rather than the rumored "allocation issues." Notably, the market felt somewhat uneasy about HAIXI PHARMA's performance in the dark pool yesterday. In the first three quarters of this year, there were a total of 66 new IPOs in the Hong Kong market, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, with total fundraising amounting to HK$182.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 228.1%. This solidifies its position as the leading market among major global exchanges. Amidst this wave of new stocks, those in the pharmaceutical sector have been performing particularly well, with seven of the top ten new stocks in Hong Kong over the past nine months belonging to medical and pharmaceutical firms. Notably, the dark pool surge for Yunnan Baiyao-B (02583), Zhonghui Biotech-B (02627), Jingfang Pharma-B (02595), and Weilizhibo-B (09887) reached 274.73%, 162.64%, 102.16%, and 100.14%, respectively. In contrast, HAIXI PHARMA's dark pool gain was merely 25.12%, failing to maintain its market value above the "entry-line." With the reason for the postponement clarified, investors are naturally concerned about how this will be handled. According to information, the rules for handling dark pool transactions differ significantly between delayed and canceled listings: if it’s merely a postponed listing, orders executed in the dark pool today are considered valid and will follow the regular L+2 day settlement process, while unexecuted orders are automatically canceled; only in extreme cases of "cancellation of listing" are all dark pool trades invalidated. For instance, on October 3, 2022, Baide Medical announced: "Due to the need for more time to respond to regulatory inquiries and after consulting with the global coordinators, the global offering will be delayed and will not proceed as per the prospectus; shares already issued or distributed, or deposited into the central clearing system, do not constitute valid proof of ownership and are considered canceled." Baide Medical was in a similar position when it faced a 40% drop after dark pool trading and subsequently urgently canceled its listing, and to this day, has not gone public. Such a situation would be recognized as "cancellation of listing," processing dark pool trades as invalid, and according to regulations, funds deducted from dark pool transactions (including fees and commissions) are typically refunded to customers' accounts within one trading day after the cancellation of listing. Although HAIXI PHARMA cannot be classified as a definitive "big meat" stock, considering its fundamentals and valuations, it can certainly be regarded as a relatively stable potential stock. As a pharmaceutical company focused on both generic and innovative drugs, HAIXI PHARMA emphasizes the development of first-generic, hard-to-generic, and highly-generic drugs, as well as complying with MAH systems, consistency evaluation for generics, and national drug procurement initiatives. In terms of innovative drugs, HAIXI PHARMA focuses on developing small molecule innovations with clear clinical needs and global market potential. HAIXI PHARMA's innovative drug pipeline includes one Phase II clinical project and three preclinical projects covering oncology, ophthalmology, and respiratory system diseases. Financially, the combined strategy of generics and innovation has led to HAIXI PHARMA's financial performance being stronger compared to most 18A companies. According to its prospectus, during the reporting period, its main revenue was approximately HK$212 million, HK$317 million, HK$467 million, and HK$249 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 48.4%; profits for the corresponding periods were approximately HK$69 million, HK$117 million, HK$136 million, and HK$90 million. Furthermore, the company's gross margin has consistently remained above 80% during the reporting period, showing overall growth while maintaining stable profitability. The main risk the company faces is its heavy reliance on generics, with generic drug revenue accounting for as much as 98% in 2024. Additionally, several of the company's core product procurement agreements will expire at the end of this year, posing the risk of contract renewal and price reductions. In terms of valuation, HAIXI PHARMA's IPO PE (TTM) valuation is approximately 41 times, which is relatively low compared to the average PE valuation of 58 times for A-share generic drug companies. Although the liquidity in the Hong Kong market may be weaker, considering the hot market and using the price-to-sales ratio valuation method for innovative drug companies, HAIXI PHARMA's PS valuation is only around 13 times, indicating potential appreciation compared to its peers.

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