Mexico's economic activity experienced a broad recovery in the second quarter, reversing a weak start to the year, aided in part by the country's role as a co-host for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported on Thursday that gross domestic product, which measures goods and services output, expanded by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Industrial production rose 1.6%, services grew 1.5%, and agricultural activity increased by 3.3%. This expansion was the largest since the fourth quarter of 2020, following a 0.6% contraction in output during the first quarter of this year.

Analysts Janneth Quiroz and Rosa Rubio Kantun at Grupo Financiero Monex stated in a report: "Part of the growth may be attributed to increased activity related to the World Cup, particularly in commerce, tourism, and transportation sectors." They cautioned that once this temporary support fades, growth could slow, while uncertainty surrounding the annual review of the USMCA trade agreement and trade relations with the United States may continue to hinder investment decisions in the near term.

Gabriela Siller, head of economic analysis at Banco Base, commented: "The Mexican economy faces a low-growth outlook for the remainder of the year, as external and domestic factors persist, generating uncertainty." Siller noted that weak household consumption, a fragile labor market, and a strengthening Mexican peso reducing the purchasing power of remittances are downside risks to growth. Meanwhile, fixed investment, which received a boost from World Cup preparations, may turn negative.

On an unadjusted basis, Mexico's second-quarter GDP grew 2.2% year-on-year, bringing the first-half growth rate to 1.2%. Analysts Nestor Rodriguez and Gabriel Casillas at Barclays see upside risks to their full-year GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. They noted in a report: "Global manufacturing is showing signs of acceleration, particularly in semiconductors and machinery, which has helped Mexico achieve trade surpluses in recent months." They added that the USMCA will remain in effect during the annual review, which "slightly reduces" uncertainty, as Mexico's tariff advantages over other countries are maintained.