Morgan Stanley has increased its price outlook for European natural gas for the remainder of the year, as the region needs to attract liquefied natural gas supplies during the summer months to replenish inventories. Analysts including Martin Rats stated in a March 12 report that the bank now expects prices to average $23 per million British thermal units in the second quarter, up from a prior forecast of $16. For the third quarter, the projection was raised to $19 from $10, while the fourth-quarter estimate was lifted to $12 from $9. The bank also raised its price expectations for 2027. Under the assumption that Qatar experiences at least one month of production shutdown, which would reduce supply by 8 million tons, the move would fully offset the previously anticipated oversupply in 2026. A risk premium has been incorporated into the forecasts, with summer gas prices heavily skewed to the upside. A multi-month halt at Ras Laffan could trigger supply constraints reminiscent of 2022, potentially pushing Dutch TTF gas prices above €100 per megawatt-hour.