Spot gold saw a significant decline in the second half of the year, falling sharply from elevated levels and breaking through key support zones (reaching a low of 3,869.96 USD per ounce on October 3, 2026), which stands in stark contrast to the 5,500–6,000 USD per ounce forecasts that institutions widely held at the beginning of the year.

Major investment banks launched a series of consecutive downward revisions to their 2026 year-end and 2027 target prices during the second half. In July, JPMorgan was the first to slash its fourth-quarter target from 6,000 USD per ounce to 4,500 USD per ounce (a 25% reduction), followed by HSBC, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, and UBS successively from August through October. On November 6, Goldman Sachs joined the revisions, cutting its forecast to 4,150 USD per ounce (end-2026) and 4,800 USD per ounce (end-2027), establishing what is currently the lowest anchor on the street.

It is worth emphasizing that this round of downward revisions almost entirely points to a repricing of the macroeconomic path (interest rates), rather than a reversal of gold's long-term structural logic. The language used by various institutions regarding central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and high debt as bullish pillars has remained essentially unchanged. The hawkish Fed is the primary driver: Goldman Sachs explicitly attributed its downgrade to "the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish policy stance"; HSBC, Commerzbank, and Bank of America all cited expectations of a December rate hike and even further hikes in 2027, with Commerzbank noting that the market has already priced in "at least a 25bp rate hike by spring 2027"; Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts to wait until late 2027 to early 2028, when interest rate constraints are expected to ease.

Rising real interest rates and yields are suppressing non-yielding assets: HSBC stated that rate hikes and rising yields "undermine the appeal of non-yielding gold"; JPMorgan and Standard Chartered both emphasized gold's high sensitivity to real interest rates; Wells Fargo also cautioned that "short-term technical conditions remain unstable, with a possible dip to 3,500 USD per ounce." A strong dollar and weakening demand: UBS characterized rate hike pressure as a "short-term disturbance," with the core focus remaining on expectations of a weakening dollar; Bank of America pointed out that short-term physical demand is relatively weak and central bank gold purchase pace has slowed, making it difficult for gold to stabilize above 4,000 USD in the coming three months. Systemic selling pressure from oil prices and inflation: Bank of America and Standard Chartered warned that if oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, gold prices may continue to probe lower in the coming weeks (with Bank of America's risk scenario pointing to 3,750 USD per ounce).

The long-term bullish logic remains intact. Structural central bank gold purchases provide a floor: Goldman Sachs stated that "global central bank buying continues to provide strong structural support for gold prices"; UBS, Standard Chartered, and Deutsche Bank all listed continued official sector purchases as a stabilizing support on the downside (annual purchases in the range of approximately 900–950 tonnes); HSBC believes that central bank buying may be triggered near the 4,000 USD per ounce level. De-dollarization and declining confidence in reserve currencies: Commerzbank listed "declining trust in the dollar as a reserve currency" and "high and rapidly growing government debt levels" as structural supports; Wells Fargo continued the de-dollarization plus central bank gold purchase narrative. Geopolitical risk and safe-haven premium: UBS listed geopolitical risk as a structural positive, while Bank of America identified "easing concerns over inflation and the Iran war" as a condition for stabilization, which inversely confirms that the safe-haven premium remains. The 4,000 USD per ounce level has become a consensus floor: UBS characterized the pullback as a "strategic entry window rather than a retreat signal," with the 4,000 USD per ounce area presenting an opportunity to add positions; Morgan Stanley called 4,000 USD per ounce a "strong bottom"; HSBC and Bank of America, while offering lower risk scenarios (3,750 / 3,500 USD per ounce), both denied a trend reversal into a bear market.

Regarding the implications of the current breakdown: London gold prices have previously fallen below the approximately 4,000 USD per ounce level. The current divergence is not about "whether to remain bullish long-term," but rather "how deep the bottom will be and how slow the recovery will be." Under a dovish scenario, gold could still return above 5,000 USD per ounce in 2027 (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo), while Goldman Sachs's 4,150 / 4,800 USD per ounce forecasts have slid to the lower end among peers. In other words, at the price level, valuations are being compressed (interest rates), while at the allocation level, the logic remains intact (central banks). This is precisely the fundamental reason why most investment banks describe this pullback as "a phased consolidation within a bull market" (JPMorgan) and a "strategic entry window" (UBS).

Risk warning: If the Fed proves more hawkish than expected (higher for longer), the dollar continues to strengthen, or the oil price-inflation chain spirals out of control, gold prices could briefly pierce below 4,000 USD per ounce to Bank of America's risk scenario of 3,750 USD per ounce or Wells Fargo's short-term 3,500 USD per ounce level. However, institutions generally believe that central bank buying will provide a floor in that region, and the probability of a trend reversal into a bear market is low.

Latest views from various institutions

1. Goldman Sachs: Price forecasts: end-2026 from 4,650 USD per ounce to 4,150 USD per ounce; end-2027 from 5,400 USD per ounce to 4,800 USD per ounce. Core logic: hawkish Fed suppresses investment demand leading to downgrade; central bank structural buying still provides a floor. Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast from 4,650 USD per ounce to 4,150 USD per ounce and its end-2027 forecast from 5,400 USD per ounce to 4,800 USD per ounce. The bank cited the Fed's increasingly hawkish policy stance in recent months as the main reason for the downgrade. Goldman Sachs stated that global central bank buying continues to provide strong structural support for gold prices, but rising interest rates have weakened investors' willingness to hold positions, resulting in relatively modest net gains for gold. The bank expects the Fed to cut rates in late 2027 to early 2028, at which point interest rate constraints on gold prices are expected to ease, and private investor demand may once again align with central bank structural buying to provide support. (November 6, 2026)

2. UBS: Price forecasts: December 2026 at 4,600 USD per ounce; September 2027 at 5,400 USD per ounce. Core logic: short-term rate disturbance; long-term credit and gold purchase logic unchanged, with the 4,000 USD per ounce area as a buying point. Note: In a September 9 research report, UBS characterized this pullback as a "strategic entry window rather than a retreat signal," and viewed a decline to around 4,000 USD per ounce as an opportunity to add positions. UBS expects gold prices to reach 4,600 USD per ounce by end-2026 and rise to 5,400 USD per ounce by September 2027. UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo stated that the pressure from rate hikes is only a short-term disturbance, and structural positives such as global high debt, expectations of a weakening dollar, geopolitical risk, and central bank gold purchases remain unchanged. (October 2026)

3. Morgan Stanley: Price forecasts: Q4 2026 at 4,450 USD per ounce; H2 2027 returning above 5,000 USD per ounce. Core logic: short-term inertial downward probing cannot be ruled out; 4,000 USD per ounce represents a strong bottom; a return above 5,000 USD per ounce in 2027, but with significant volatility. Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 gold price forecast to 4,450 USD per ounce, while noting that although 4,000 USD has strong bottom support, short-term inertial downward probing cannot be ruled out. (October 26, 2026) Gold has already reached our Q4 target of 4,450 USD per ounce ahead of schedule... We believe gold prices could break through 5,000 USD per ounce in 2027, though there is significant room for volatility in between... We maintain gold as our top pick among metals and set a Q2 2027 target of 5,000 USD per ounce. (August 20, 2026)

4. HSBC: Price forecasts: 2026 average from 4,560 USD per ounce to 4,490 USD per ounce; 2027 average from 4,925 USD per ounce to 4,825 USD per ounce. Core logic: rate hikes plus rising yields suppress prices; central bank buying may be triggered near 4,000 USD per ounce. HSBC expects the 2026 average gold price to be 4,490 USD per ounce, below its previous forecast of 4,560 USD, and lowered its 2027 average gold price forecast from 4,925 USD per ounce to 4,825 USD per ounce. HSBC stated that market expectations of further US rate hikes and rising bond yields will continue to suppress gold prices, as this undermines the appeal of non-yielding gold. The bank's economists expect the Fed to hike rates again in December this year. (October 1, 2026)

5. Bank of America: Price forecasts: Q4 2026 average at 4,000 USD per ounce; 2027 average at 4,813 USD per ounce (risk scenario dipping to 3,750 USD per ounce). Core logic: short-term caution (weak physical demand, slowing central bank purchases); medium-term still sees 2027 average at 4,813 USD per ounce. Bank of America expects the Q4 2026 average gold price to be 4,000 USD per ounce, with the 2027 average potentially rising to 4,813 USD. The bank believes gold prices will struggle to hold firmly above 4,000 USD per ounce in the coming three months. Earlier this month, Bank of America projected that persistently high energy prices and ongoing inflation concerns could push gold prices down to 3,750 USD per ounce in Q4. (October 12, 2026)

6. Standard Chartered: Price forecasts: Q4 2026 average at 4,650 USD per ounce; Q1 2027 at 4,850 USD per ounce. Core logic: weakening real interest rate suppression, official buying provides a floor; must hold the 3,886 USD per ounce support level, long-term bullish. Standard Chartered forecasts that the Q4 average gold price will reach 4,650 USD per ounce and rise further to 4,850 USD per ounce in Q1 2027... Our long-term view on gold remains unchanged. However, if oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, gold prices may continue to probe lower in the coming weeks, searching for a bottom. (October 28, 2026) Gold has recovered from its previous decline and is currently seeking support around the 50-day moving average... Continued official sector gold purchases provide stable downside support for prices. Gold's sensitivity to real interest rates has decreased. Standard Chartered expects the Q4 average gold price to reach approximately 4,650 USD per ounce this year. (September 22, 2026)

7. Wells Fargo: Price forecasts: end-2026 at 5,300–5,500 USD per ounce (midpoint 5,000 USD per ounce); end-2027 at 5,800–6,000 USD per ounce. Core logic: de-dollarization plus central bank gold purchase narrative unchanged, long-term bullish; short-term technical conditions not yet stable. Wells Fargo forecasts gold prices will reach 5,300–5,500 USD per ounce by end-2026 and climb to 5,800–6,000 USD per ounce by end-2027... It is difficult to assert that gold has already bottomed. In the short term, I believe gold prices may face downside risk to 3,500 USD. (July 22, 2026)

8. Deutsche Bank: Price forecasts: Q4 2026 at 4,600 USD per ounce (corrected bottom around 3,900 USD per ounce). Core logic: fair value model plus official gold purchase support; corrected bottom around 3,900 USD per ounce. Gold prices have been in an "explosive price behavior phase" since August 2024 and this is still ongoing... Deutsche Bank reiterated its previous forecast, firmly believing that gold prices will reach the 4,600 USD mark by end-2026. It further noted that there are ample reasons to believe the 2026 low has already appeared... Even after deducting factors such as excess official sector purchases and real interest rates, the model still shows that gold's fair value could approach 4,700 USD per ounce by year-end... maintaining the end-2026 gold price target of 4,600 USD. (August 4, 2026)

9. JPMorgan: Price forecasts: Q4 2026 average from 6,000 USD per ounce to 4,500 USD per ounce, a 25% reduction; core logic: most cautious short-term (weakening demand plus real interest rate sensitivity), but the long bull market is not over. JPMorgan lowered its Q4 gold price target from 6,000 USD to 4,500 USD, making it the most cautious among mainstream investment banks currently. However, the bank also explicitly stated that the current gold price adjustment is merely a phased consolidation within a multi-year bull market... Despite lowering short-term expectations, JPMorgan has not changed its medium-to-long-term bullish judgment, believing that the current volatility is just a phased consolidation within a multi-year bull market, with no structural bearish factors that would reverse the long-term upward trend. (July 6, 2026)

10. Commerzbank: Price forecasts: end-2026 from 5,000 USD per ounce to 4,800 USD per ounce; end-2027 at 5,200 USD per ounce (maintained). Core logic: short-term downgrade due to rate hike expectations; long-term 5,200 unchanged (de-dollarization plus debt). Commerzbank lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast to 4,800 USD per ounce from 5,000 USD previously. It maintained its end-2027 price forecast of 5,200 USD per ounce... The market has shifted from expecting Fed rate cuts before the outbreak of Middle East conflict to fully pricing in the possibility of at least a 25 basis point rate hike by spring 2027, prompting a reduction of its year-end gold target from the initial 5,000 USD per ounce to approximately 4,800 USD per ounce... We maintain our end-2027 gold price forecast of 5,200 USD per ounce. The structural factors supporting gold remain intact. These factors include declining confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency... government debt levels are already very high and growing rapidly. (June 5, 2026)