On Monday, September 14, international gold prices experienced a bottoming rebound but ultimately closed lower. Following an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline that halted operations, surging energy prices exacerbated inflation concerns, pushing gold to open lower and decline. However, support from the 60-day moving average, coupled with safe-haven buying, helped prices stabilize and recover somewhat. While pressure persists, as long as this support level remains intact, another test could trigger a bullish rebound. A break below, however, would open the door for a potential retest of the uptrend line support originating from 2023 before renewed upside momentum emerges.

In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session lower at $4,334.95 per ounce, initially strengthening to fill the gap and reaching an intraday high of $4,354.92. It then encountered resistance and pulled back, extending losses into early U.S. trading where it hit an intraday low of $4,253.63. From there, prices staged a bottom-fishing recovery, rebounding to near $4,317 before facing renewed selling pressure. Gold ultimately settled at $4,298.60 by the close, marking a daily range of $101.29. Compared to last Friday's closing price of $4,346.36, this represented a decline of $47.76, or 1.1%.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, September 15, international gold opened with continued weakness following the late-session pullback from the prior day. The U.S. dollar index has reclaimed its position above the 200-day moving average, and as long as it remains within a defined range, this will likely limit gold's upside potential while exerting downward pressure on prices.

This week brings the U.S. August retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision. Market expectations point to a significant improvement in the data compared to the previous month, which would be bearish for gold. Most economists also anticipate a rate hike when the Fed announces its decision early Thursday morning Beijing time. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently assign approximately a 93% probability of a rate increase this week. This suggests gold will remain under pressure from these bearish expectations leading up to the announcement.

However, should the data disappoint or the Fed choose to hold rates steady, with a "dovish" tone in its statement or a dot plot suggesting a less aggressive hiking path than anticipated, gold could gain momentum from renewed buying interest. That said, any such rally should still be viewed as a phase-based rebound, as elevated oil prices continue to fuel both inflation and rate hike expectations, keeping gold in a fundamentally bearish environment.

Overall, the current pressure from inflation and rate expectations is outweighing safe-haven demand, weighing on gold prices. In the short-to-medium term, we may need to wait for the oil crisis to gradually subside or for the Fed to complete its rate hiking cycle before safe-haven demand returns to the forefront. From a longer-term perspective, reviewing the three historical oil crises, each ultimately concluded with oil prices peaking and then retreating, with the crisis gradually easing. All three episodes also triggered recessions in Western economies. While the Fed was ultimately forced to raise rates in each instance, gold did not experience sustained declines and eventually entered renewed bull markets.

Therefore, short-term, daily, or weekly gold traders need not focus heavily on fundamental outlooks or directional trends. Long-term holders of physical gold or accumulated positions can consider staggered entries at current lows, or after any further pullbacks, in anticipation of new historical highs down the road.

From a technical perspective on the weekly chart, gold is trading above the middle Bollinger Band, with the bands showing signs of contraction. However, ancillary indicators maintain a bearish signal, suggesting the market may enter a multi-month sideways consolidation phase with the risk of another downside test. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains bullish for a climb to new highs. Consequently, support at the middle Bollinger Band or the 30-month moving average continues to represent attractive entry points for long-term bullish positions.

On the weekly chart, gold has initially broken below the 60-week moving average support. While there is some rebound potential, the multiple resistance levels from the moving averages above pose significant pressure. As such, it's highly probable that prices will break below this support and decline toward the uptrend line support near $4,100. At that point, a certain level of bullish rebound demand could be anticipated.

On the daily chart, gold is currently testing the strength of the 60-day moving average support. Intraday traders can still look to buy at this level with a bullish bias. A close below would trigger stop-losses, with the next buying opportunity awaiting a retracement to the trendline support. On the upside, attention should be directed to resistance from the 100-day and 10-day moving averages for shorting opportunities.

For intraday operational reference points (actual entry and exit levels will be communicated to live account holders): Gold faces support around $4,245 or $4,210, with resistance at $4,310 or $4,330. Silver faces support around $62.40 or $61.20, with resistance at $63.90 or $64.15.