On Monday (September 29th) during Asian trading, spot gold reached new record highs, historically breaking through $3,800 per ounce around 12:30 PM, climbing to $3,805 per ounce. Gold has gained approximately $350 this month, with daily gains exceeding 1%.
Gold prices continued to rise after six consecutive weeks of gains, as traders weigh the risks of a potential U.S. government shutdown that could delay the release of crucial employment data this week, thereby affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
Meanwhile, spot silver surged more than $1.00 intraday, trading at $47.1 per ounce with gains of 2.2%. Platinum and palladium also rose strongly, supported by continued market supply tightness and precious metals ETF fund inflows.
Investors are closely monitoring Monday's planned meeting between the four top Congressional leaders and President Trump. If no agreement is reached on a short-term spending bill, federal funding will expire the following day. A government shutdown would threaten the release of key data including Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which economists expect to show slowing job growth in September.
Weak employment data would strengthen Federal Reserve officials' case for loosening monetary policy at the October rate decision, a scenario that would make interest-free precious metals more attractive. However, the outlook for the Fed's rate-cutting cycle remains highly uncertain, with officials divided on monetary policy stance and some economic data performing better than expected.
Following Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's attorney urging the Supreme Court last Thursday to allow her to remain in office to counter Trump's dismissal attempts, traders continue to assess threats to U.S. central bank independence.
Barclays strategists Themistoklis Fiotakis and Lefteris Farmakis noted in Sunday's report that gold is not overvalued relative to the dollar and Treasury bonds, considering the risk nature of potential Fed independence loss, these assets "should contain some Fed-related risk premium."
"This makes gold an exceptionally high-quality value hedge," they added.
Gold has risen more than 40% this year, reaching successive new highs driven by central bank gold purchasing demand and the Fed's restart of its rate-cutting cycle. Gold is poised for its third consecutive quarterly gain, with gold ETF holdings reaching their highest levels since 2022. Institutions including Goldman Sachs Group and Deutsche Bank expect the rally to continue.
Meanwhile, other precious metals have faced unprecedented supply tightness this year. Concerns have grown over shrinking freely tradable metal inventories in London markets as years of supply shortage issues have intensified. Lease rates for silver, platinum, and palladium (reflecting typically short-term metal borrowing costs) have all soared well above normal near-zero levels.
Citigroup analyst Max Layton's team noted that new concerns about platinum group metals potentially being included in Trump's "Section 232" critical minerals investigation have heightened market tensions. The bank stated in its September 19th report that given the review results expected in late October, palladium faces rising risks of U.S. import tariffs.
Traders are closely watching speeches from multiple Fed officials today. Governors Waller, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, New York Fed President Williams, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will share their views. Any hawkish comments could boost dollar strength and pressure dollar-denominated gold.
FXStreet analysis indicates that gold's intraday trading maintains a positive stance. From a long-term perspective, this precious metal's bullish tone remains intact, with daily chart prices holding steady above the key 100-day moving average. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows overbought conditions. This suggests the possibility of technical consolidation or phase correction before initiating a new round of short-term gains.
Key resistance for spot gold is seen in the $3,800-3,810 range, covering psychological levels and Bollinger Band upper rail. Sustained breakthrough of this level could drive gold to test the $3,850 position. On the downside, gold's initial support is located at $3,722 (September 25th low). If the candle closes below this level, it may further probe $3,632 (September 19th low).