According to industry analysis from Sigmaintell, the flexible OLED market is displaying notable structural divergence. In the second half of the year, only panel suppliers within Apple's supply chain are experiencing relatively stable order volumes, with demand remaining well-supported. Against a backdrop of continued price pressure from device makers and panel manufacturers vying for market share, FOLED prices are expected to maintain their downward trend in the third quarter.

Sigmaintell forecasts that although the third quarter marks a concentrated launch window for mid-to-high-end and flagship devices, rising upstream component costs—particularly for memory chips—are significantly driving up total device BOM costs. This is creating widespread upward pressure on retail prices, which in turn is dampening consumer appetite for upgrades. Meanwhile, escalating prices for ICs and semiconductor materials continue to push up display module costs. At the same time, device brand profitability is being squeezed further, prompting stricter cost-control measures and a noticeably heightened sensitivity to panel procurement pricing.

Under the twin pressures of weak demand and rising costs, panel makers are finding it difficult to pass expenses down the supply chain, keeping overall price trends soft. Here is a breakdown of how each technology is performing:

For a-Si LCD, rising memory chip prices are intensifying cost pressure on low-end smartphones. Higher device prices are suppressing demand, and the low-end market is expected to shrink further in the latter half of the year. Brand cost-control efforts are becoming more aggressive, with a stronger willingness to drive down module purchase prices. Module manufacturers are largely unable to pass on rising IC costs downstream, so their price increase requests are essentially falling flat. Only a few brands sourcing ICs directly are seeing somewhat elevated module costs.

LTPS LCD is seeing a marked contraction in smartphone demand due to substitution by other technologies and weakening end-market consumption. Current orders are mostly tail-end demand from older projects, so prices are expected to stay relatively stable in the third quarter. Over the medium to long term, IT-sector demand is also facing contraction pressures, while the automotive segment continues to grow. As phone orders decline further, panel makers competing for limited orders—especially sizable new projects—may proactively offer price concessions to secure business, keeping prices under some downward pressure.

ROLED (rigid OLED) demand continues to shrink under substitution pressure from FOLED, and panel prices are expected to remain weak in the third quarter.

For FOLED (flexible OLED), the market is showing clear structural divergence. In the second half, only Apple supply chain panel makers are seeing stable orders with solid demand support. Other Android brand demand is broadly contracting, and industry capacity competition remains intense. With device makers continually pushing for lower prices and panel suppliers fighting for share, FOLED prices are set to continue their downward trend in Q3.

In the tablet panel market, ongoing increases in memory chip prices are further lifting device BOM costs. Brand profitability is under pressure, and cost burdens are being passed along the supply chain to core components like panels. However, some panel-side raw material prices are still on an upward trajectory, adding to panel makers' own cost pressures and limiting their ability to pass costs downstream. Since the second quarter, tablet device prices have been broadly raised, further slowing market demand momentum.

Facing both weakening demand and rising costs, panel makers will place greater emphasis on balancing utilization rates with profitability, keeping overall panel prices under pressure. Sigmaintell's forecasts for each technology route are as follows:

For a-Si LCD, as Oxide LCD continues penetrating the mid-to-low-end market, a-Si LCD faces further substitution pressure. Additionally, weakening brand demand in the second half will erode demand support further, with prices expected to keep sliding in line with falling demand.

Oxide LCD is seeing increased market participation and supply competition as its penetration rate rises and demand scale expands. Device brands are also facing considerable cost-control pressures, strengthening their demands on panel pricing. With supply competition intensifying and brands continuing to drive prices down, Oxide LCD panel prices are expected to face significant downward pressure.

LTPS LCD demand is currently concentrated in the mid-to-high-end tablet market, where 13.2-inch, 3K+ resolution has become the mainstream specification for brand flagship products. As mid-to-high-end tablet demand weakens in the second half, brand cost pressures will increasingly transfer to the panel side. LTPS LCD prices are expected to decline modestly, though automotive demand supporting line utilization should limit the extent of the decline.