The US government has revised upward its previous estimates for consumer spending, with the US economy achieving its fastest growth rate in nearly two years during the second quarter. According to the latest report released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation-adjusted US second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a revised annualized rate of 3.8%, higher than the previously estimated 3.3%, while first-quarter GDP had shown contraction. This data reflects changes in the value of goods and services produced in the United States.

Simultaneously, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its annual national economic accounting update, covering GDP and related data revisions for the past five years. Although the update process incorporated more comprehensive data sources, the agency noted that some statistical information related to corporate and sole proprietorship tax returns remains unavailable. The annual revision magnitude was generally limited, with US real GDP averaging 2.4% annual growth from 2019 to 2024. The revised data further illustrates the economy's rapid rebound from the initial pandemic shock and gradual transition to a more stable growth phase, though inflationary pressures persist.

Economic indicators released simultaneously on Thursday for August showed strong growth in business equipment orders, a greater-than-expected narrowing of the goods trade deficit, and initial unemployment claims falling to their lowest level since mid-July. From a quarterly perspective, the latest GDP revision confirms the US economy's rebound in the second quarter—following a first quarter when businesses engaged in large-scale import stockpiling to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to surging imports.

The third quarter economic performance remains robust, with recent reports showing strong momentum in both consumer spending and business equipment investment. Prior to the data release, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model had projected third-quarter economic growth at 3.3%, but economists remain cautious about fourth-quarter growth prospects, believing that labor market weakness could constrain consumer spending.

Looking ahead, economists expect only modest acceleration in 2026, partially due to factors including Trump tax policy and relatively low interest rate environment, though US economic growth rates in coming years are generally expected to remain below 2%.

Regarding inflation, revised data shows that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE, excluding food and energy) closely monitored by the Federal Reserve accelerated throughout 2024, reaching 2.6% in the second quarter. Economists predict that August PCE data to be released Friday will show year-over-year increases approaching 3%, which could limit the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts in coming months. Although the Fed cut borrowing costs last week and policymakers expect two more rate cuts this year, given persistent inflationary pressures, some officials remain cautious about further rate reductions.