JPMorgan Chase global research analysts believe that silver prices are establishing a higher floor in 2026, although the ceiling remains uncertain. A surge in global demand introduces both upside and downside risks to price forecasts.

In a report issued on Tuesday, analysts stated that silver is attempting to emerge from gold's shadow in 2026, but whether it will succeed remains unclear.

"Much like Robin to Batman's gold, silver has perpetually played the sidekick in the precious metals world—often overlooked by its more illustrious counterpart," they wrote. "Despite silver's practical value in industrial processes and outputs, including its use as conductive paste coating solar panels and arrays to collect and transmit electrical current, the gold-to-silver price ratio has at times exceeded 100-to-1."

"However, currently, the ratio is at its closest level in 15 years," they added, "as both gold and silver prices experienced extreme volatility early in 2026—during one period, silver's rally even began to outpace gold's, at least in terms of net value gains."

JPMorgan attributes a significant portion of these gains to US tariff policies. "For months, the US Department of Commerce reviewed critical minerals under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, a specific provision allowing the president to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions if imports are deemed a threat to national security," the analysts wrote. "This period of uncertainty ended in mid-January when President Trump paused new tariffs on imports of critical minerals, including silver, opting instead to seek bilateral agreements with trading partners to ensure sufficient supply. Silver prices fell following this executive order but subsequently rebounded."

The next immediate catalyst for a silver downturn occurred on January 30, when Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair. "Silver plunged 27%, while gold fell 10%," they noted.

The analysts indicated that while Warsh's nomination, coupled with short-term dollar strength, appears to have dampened exceptional demand for precious metals, specific structural drivers persist that could continue to constrain silver supply.

"First, broadly speaking, silver is mined as a by-product of other metals, meaning production is relatively inelastic to rising silver prices," they pointed out. "Second is silver's role in industrial processes, such as the manufacturing of solar panels."

Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JPMorgan, suggested a scenario where high silver prices could force solar manufacturers to adopt silver-free technologies to control costs, while also working to reduce the amount of silver used per solar panel.

"Longer term, we see the biggest risk to silver coming from wider adoption of silver-free technologies, such as cadmium telluride thin-film technology," Shearer remarked, referring to such silver-free alternatives. "While inherently a precious metal, silver is also a very industrial metal, with industrial applications accounting for roughly 60% of total demand (excluding ETF flows). From a fundamental perspective, we believe this price surge has likely materially accelerated substitution and thrifting trends, which will have a persistent impact on the silver supply-demand balance over the coming quarters."

However, Shearer acknowledged that these changes might take years to materialize. In the near term, he still views fluctuations in investment demand as the primary price driver.

JPMorgan Global Research concludes that silver prices are indeed establishing a higher floor, but the ceiling remains unclear.

"One reason gold demand is more robust than silver's is its broader buyer base, which includes central banks worldwide that purchase gold both to diversify their US dollar reserve assets and for its qualities as an inflation-resistant, counterparty-risk-free liquid asset," the report stated. "Silver does not enjoy the same baseline demand—which partly explains why its fair price might be harder to determine."

"Given the lack of structural pull-back buying from central banks, as seen in the gold market, we do see a risk of the gold-silver ratio moving higher again," Shearer said, but he added that global demand—particularly from China and India—will play a key role in determining where support emerges for silver prices following their recent pullback.

"With amplified Asian investment demand significantly influencing price formation across the metals complex, we view this as another catalyst to watch in the silver market over the coming weeks," Shearer stated. "Ultimately, we are more cautious about re-engaging heavily with silver in the near term until some of the recent froth has been more adequately washed out of the price."

JPMorgan Global Research forecasts an average silver price of $81 per ounce for 2026, with the highest average price of $85 anticipated in the fourth quarter. The institution also predicts an average price of $85 for this grey-white metal in 2027.