Barclays has cautioned that oil prices might climb by as much as 50% before the global market achieves a balance between supply and demand, provided the current situation continues. In a report dated September 21, analyst Amarpreet Singh highlighted that the disruption of Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline earlier this month underscores the ongoing risks to the slow recovery of Middle Eastern crude production.

Singh noted that inventory and consumption indicators suggest "prices still have a considerable way to go before supply and demand move into equilibrium," adding that this heightens the bank's potential to revise its price forecasts upward. While the current net supply loss from the Middle East is estimated at 4.7 million barrels per day, a substantial reduction from the 12 to 13 million barrels per day seen at the outset of the conflict, "on the other hand, the existing inventory buffer is now significantly smaller."

The bank projects Brent crude to reach $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by $90, $85, $85, and $80 per barrel over the subsequent four quarters, respectively.