On Tuesday, April 14th, international gold (London spot) extended its rebound from Monday's lows, supported by the US dollar index falling to a six-week low. A significant rise in market optimism regarding the potential resumption of US-Iran negotiations, coupled with a continued decline in crude oil prices, alleviated the dual pressures of safe-haven demand and inflation stemming from Middle East conflicts. This combination of factors propelled gold prices higher, with the metal closing in positive territory after breaking through the resistance of the 30-day moving average. Short-term bullish momentum appears strong, although prices are now approaching resistance levels near the 30-week and 60-day moving averages, warranting attention to the risk of a pullback. A decisive break above the 60-day moving average resistance could pave the way for a further advance towards the $5,100 level.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,744.29 per ounce, quickly recording an intraday low of $4,744.07. It then rebounded and strengthened, consolidating above $4,760 for most of the day. During the US trading session, bullish forces re-emerged, leading to a sustained rally. The session high of $4,846.09 was reached late in the day, and the metal settled firmly at $4,841.52. The daily trading range was $102.02, resulting in a gain of $97.23, or 2.05%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, April 15th, international gold opened with narrow price movements, testing the vicinity of last week's high. Some profit-taking activity was observed. However, with the US dollar index trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating bearish dominance, and crude oil prices remaining weak below their medium-term and short-term moving averages, underlying support for gold persists. Therefore, any intraday pullback due to profit-taking should be viewed as an opportunity to buy on dips, with support levels around the 5-day and 100-day moving averages serving as key areas to watch.
Market participants will focus on economic data releases including the US Empire State Manufacturing Index for April, the US Import Price Index for March, and the NAHB Housing Market Index for April. Following the weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index data for March released yesterday, the overall data flow tonight is anticipated to be relatively favorable for gold prices. Consequently, the trading strategy for the day remains biased towards buying on dips for further upside.
Fundamentally, at the start of the week, risk sentiment was initially dampened after weekend US-Iran talks collapsed and the US imposed a maritime blockade on an Iranian port. This caused gold prices to gap lower at the open, erasing the previous week's gains. However, prices subsequently recovered as negotiating teams indicated a potential return to Islamabad this week to resume substantive talks aimed at ending the conflict. Countries including Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are actively mediating. Subsequent optimistic comments from former US President Donald Trump and others regarding imminent further talks, alongside China's emphasis on playing a constructive role in promoting peaceful dialogue on Middle Eastern issues, were quickly interpreted by markets as a significant signal of improving risk appetite. This diplomatic shift alleviated market pressures, allowing gold to bottom out and rebound strongly, retesting last week's highs.
In the short term, the current optimistic sentiment surrounding the geopolitical situation is expected to continue supporting a strong rebound in gold prices. Should talks break down again, it would likely only lead to a period of consolidation and adjustment for gold, rather than a sharp decline. The near-term rebound target remains around the $5,100 level.
From a technical perspective, on a monthly chart, gold concluded March above a key rising trendline, maintaining its bullish outlook. The current month's opening price also remains above this trendline. As long as monthly closes hold above this trendline support, the potential for new highs remains intact.
On the weekly chart, gold closed last week with a doji-like pattern, failing to breach the resistance of the 10-week moving average. Oscillators continue to signal bearish momentum, and the price pattern suggests a potential for a pullback after touching resistance. This week opened with a continuation of this pattern, initially moving lower. However, prices found support at the 5-week moving average and have since rebounded strongly, moving back above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting bulls have regained the upper hand. Resistance at the 10-week moving average near $4,880 will be a key level to watch. A sustained break and close above this resistance could open the door for a retest of the all-time high.
On the daily chart, gold extended Monday's rebound with strong gains yesterday. Prices have now reclaimed the 5-day and 10-day short-term moving averages and have broken above the 30-day moving average resistance. These levels now turn into supportive zones for further gains. The next upside target is resistance near the 60-day moving average around $4,920. A break above this level could trigger a move towards the $5,100 mark. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance may lead to a pullback. However, any such pullback towards the support of the 100-day and 144-day moving averages would likely present another buying opportunity.
Intraday specific entry and exit points for trading should be based on real-time market guidance.
Preliminary intraday trading level references are as follows. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications. Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,800 or $4,750; Resistance levels are near $4,855 or $4,920. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $77.80 or $76.10; Resistance levels are near $81.20 or $83.35.