JPMorgan has released a research report indicating that Trip.com Group's second-quarter results and third-quarter outlook suggest the monetization rate adjustment for its domestic hotel business will be postponed to the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which is later and more significant than the bank had previously anticipated.

As a result, the bank has lowered its price target for Trip.com Group (09961) from HK$560 to HK$490, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The bank expects the company's earnings to normalize by 2027, with share buybacks and international business growth helping to cushion the transition period.

However, JPMorgan has revised down its adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 4% and 13%, respectively, to reflect the decline in domestic hotel monetization rates during the transition and weaker domestic transportation commission income.