According to a research report from Huafu Securities, the luxury goods industry continued its recovery trend in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the jewelry and watch category leading growth. The activewear and fragrance/cosmetics categories maintained positive growth, while the alcoholic beverages segment remained under pressure. Regional performance varied, with growth slowing in the Americas market, while the Greater China region showed continued recovery, serving as a significant support for improved performance for several groups. Looking ahead to 2026, most groups maintain a cautiously optimistic view on growth, focusing on enhancing profitability quality. Huafu Securities' main views are as follows:
The recovery in the luxury goods industry continues, with the Chinese market showing ongoing marginal improvement. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the luxury sector overall extended the warming trend seen in the third quarter, with financial reports from multiple luxury groups indicating continued steady growth. Despite facing external macroeconomic pressures, including exchange rate fluctuations and global economic uncertainty, overall consumer demand demonstrated a clear recovery momentum.
By category, jewelry and watches led growth at fixed exchange rates, with a significantly expanded growth rate compared to the third quarter. This was followed by the activewear category, the fragrance/cosmetics category, and the leather goods, apparel, and footwear categories, all of which maintained positive growth in the fourth quarter. Conversely, the alcoholic beverages category was notably under pressure, experiencing a substantial decline.
Regionally, at fixed exchange rates, the Americas market showed the fastest year-on-year growth, but the pace of growth slowed noticeably. This was followed by the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) market and the Japanese market. The European market recorded a year-on-year growth of just 0.3%, which also slowed compared to the third quarter. Furthermore, regarding the Chinese market, management from several luxury groups expressed a clearly positive attitude.
Regarding performance outlook, most luxury groups did not provide specific quantitative guidance for future results. However, they expressed a positive attitude towards their groups' performance for the 2026 calendar year, primarily focusing on goals to improve growth quality and profitability. Additionally, representatives of the accessible luxury segment, Tapestry Inc. and Ralph Lauren, both raised their future performance guidance due to their excellent results.
Risk factors include tariff fluctuation risks, raw material price volatility risks, and uncertainties in downstream demand.