According to an analysis of unadjusted state-level data released during the government shutdown, initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week.

The analysis shows that for the week ending October 11, initial jobless claims fell to approximately 215,000, down from the previous week's estimate of 234,000. Economists at Goldman Sachs also predicted a decrease in initial claims, estimating them to be around 217,000 last week.

Due to the government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Labor has not released the weekly jobless report since September 25, but it has provided downloadable data for most states. This data was adjusted using seasonal factors previously published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This method yields figures that are very close to the official seasonally adjusted numbers when covering data from all states. However, the most recent weekly data is missing for Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee. Goldman Sachs utilized internal methods to handle the missing state-level data.

Estimates indicate that for the week ending October 4, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits slightly rose to 1.93 million, up from the previous estimate of 1.92 million. Under the direction of Jan Hatzius, economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that the number of continuing claims remained essentially unchanged at 1.92 million.