From July 19th to 20th, international crude oil prices surged significantly as tensions between the United States and Iran escalated further, with the benchmark Brent crude futures price surpassing the $90 per barrel threshold. Influenced by worsening geopolitical conditions and concerns over disruptions to energy supply chains, global major stock markets exhibited divergent performances, while energy and retail fuel prices in many nations remained under sustained pressure.

At the opening on July 20th, the international oil benchmark Brent crude futures price rose approximately 3%, breaking above $90 per barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices also moved higher concurrently, hovering around $84 per barrel. Analysts noted that the widening US-Iran conflict is the central factor driving this round of oil price increases. In recent days, military confrontations between U.S. forces and Iran in locations such as Jordan and Iraq have resulted in the deaths of at least three U.S. military personnel, prompting the U.S. to subsequently deploy additional aircraft to the Middle East and expand its strike range. Simultaneously, vessel traffic through the critical Middle Eastern energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, has declined substantially, and infrastructure in Kuwait and other nations has suffered successive damage, sparking significant market apprehension regarding crude oil transportation security.

The global energy supply system is currently facing multiple pressures. Beyond the Middle East situation, refining facilities in major diesel-exporting countries, including Russia, have been damaged, leading to tightening global supplies of transport fuels like diesel. Furthermore, global crude oil inventories have dropped to low levels, further amplifying the market impact of the geopolitical conflict.

Geopolitical turbulence is also generating ripple effects across financial markets and consumer end-points. On the 20th, Asia-Pacific stock markets opened with mixed performances; Japan's Nikkei 225 index and South Korea's KOSPI index, which are reliant on energy imports, saw declines at one point reaching approximately 4%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2%; U.S. S&P 500 index futures showed stable performance. On the retail front, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) indicated that as of the 19th, the U.S. national average retail price for regular gasoline climbed to nearly $4 per gallon, with the average diesel price rising to $5.10 per gallon. Both have seen cumulative increases exceeding 30% since the outbreak of the conflict.