In the first half of this year, global trade has seen a significant nominal expansion, but this growth is heavily supported by price factors, with actual volume gains remaining relatively modest. Meanwhile, structural trade divergences continue to widen, geopolitical conflict risks are on the rise, and issues such as trade fragmentation, rising costs, and uneven recovery have become increasingly prominent. International institutions including the World Trade Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and the International Monetary Fund widely believe that behind the current resilience of trade lies underlying fragility, with risks of a slowdown in growth momentum in the second half of the year.

Price factors have driven a notable increase in nominal trade values. According to the latest Global Trade Update released by UNCTAD in July, the global goods trade reached $13.7 trillion in the first half of this year, up 12.5% year-on-year, while global services trade grew by 10.5%. The combined increment in goods and services trade for the first half was approximately $2 trillion, with goods trade contributing $1.5 trillion and services trade contributing about $500 billion. In the first quarter, global goods trade grew by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating to 6.4% in the second quarter. Services trade saw more moderate growth, with a 1.6% quarter-on-quarter increase in the first quarter and a 2.1% rise in the second quarter. UNCTAD noted that it is not enough to judge a recovery in global demand based solely on trade values; a distinction must be made between "price-driven" and "demand-driven" growth. UNCTAD data shows that the prices of traded goods rose by about 3.6% in the first quarter and further increased to around 5% in the second quarter. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East geopolitical conflicts have raised energy and maritime logistics costs, directly inflating global import and export settlement prices. The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer released in June stood at 101.7, only slightly above the baseline of 100, indicating that physical trade volumes have only expanded modestly, far below the double-digit growth in nominal trade values. The IMF's World Economic Outlook report projects global economic growth to remain at a moderate 3.0% in 2026, with weak aggregate demand unlikely to sustain large-scale expansion in physical trade.

There is a vast gap in trade performance between high-tech sectors and traditional industries. Trade performance across different industries shows a clear structural divergence, with artificial intelligence and new energy-related supply chains emerging as the core growth engines for global trade. According to UNCTAD's category-based statistics, in the first quarter of 2026, trade in critical minerals grew by 38%, semiconductors by 25%, information and communication technology products by 14%, power batteries by 15%, and electric vehicles by 11%. The strong performance of the electronic components sub-index, at 105.5 in the WTO's barometer, also confirms that with the construction of computing infrastructure and the expansion of global AI capital expenditure, cross-border flows of chips, servers, and electronic components are becoming increasingly active. Energy trade performance is mixed, with trade in wind and solar power equipment contracting, fossil fuel trade achieving only nominal growth driven by price increases, with physical transaction volumes roughly flat. Traditional manufacturing is under pressure, with sluggish growth in trade of steel and basic chemicals, and overall weak performance in the automotive sector, where trade growth in traditional fuel vehicles is below historical averages.

Risks in commodity and food trade continue to accumulate. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East are disrupting energy supplies, while fertilizer and food cross-border transportation is hindered. Some countries have imposed export controls, heightening uncertainty in agricultural supply chains. UNCTAD warns that nearly 30% of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any prolonged disruption to this shipping route could transmit to global food prices, creating a dual shock for low-income food-importing countries. Services trade also displays internal structural divergence. Digital services, cross-border intellectual property, and business consulting maintain steady growth, while the recovery pace of tourism and transport services has slowed. Due to risks in shipping routes and freight rate volatility, the cost of maritime transport services has risen, and the recovery of cross-border personnel flows has fallen short of expectations, limiting the expansion of tourism services trade.

The importance of South-South trade in global trade continues to rise. As a major trend in international trade in recent years, South-South trade has further intensified in the first half of the year. Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and heightened geopolitical competition, trade exchanges among developing countries are expanding. Facing near-shoring and friend-shoring policies promoted by developed economies, emerging markets are proactively expanding cross-regional economic and trade cooperation, with several regional trade agreements coming into effect. Simultaneously, during the adjustment of major economies' trade policies, a group of "connector economies" have taken on re-export and assembly roles, becoming new nodes in the global value chain. Data shows that the growth rate of South-South trade continues to exceed that of trade among developed economies. Regionally, East Asia has been the main driver of global trade growth in the first half of the year, with goods trade growth significantly above the global average. UNCTAD data indicates that East Asia, relying on its complete electronic information and new energy industry chains, has captured global orders, leading to sustained growth in semiconductor and new energy product exports. Meanwhile, consumer demand in North America is marginally weakening, while the EU faces the dual pressures of energy transition costs and manufacturing relocation, resulting in slower import growth.

Trade fragmentation and geopolitical conflicts are impacting global trade. Since the first half of the year, geopolitical risks have replaced conventional economic fluctuations as the primary source of uncertainty for global trade. UNCTAD's Trade and Development Outlook 2026 points out that the center of global risk has shifted from trade policy uncertainty to persistent geopolitical risks. The Middle East conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and competition in the technology sector have pushed up costs for insurance, shipping, and energy, squeezing profit margins in global trade. At the same time, trade protectionism is heating up, putting continuous pressure on the multilateral trading system. The WTO Director-General has repeatedly warned of the risks of global trade fragmentation, with near-shoring and friend-shoring accelerating, and an increase in various countries' industrial subsidies, export controls, and investment review measures. The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism has yet to be fully restored, weakening the binding force of multilateral rules. The number of regional and bilateral trade arrangements is growing, and global economic governance is becoming increasingly fragmented.

The foundation for global trade growth in the first half of the year is not solid. Three major characteristics define the current trade landscape: price factors driving nominal trade values higher, structural industrial benefits concentrated in high-tech sectors, and severe regional growth imbalances. In the second half of the year, multiple headwinds will persist, including the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in energy and shipping costs, and the spread of protectionist policies, all of which could drag down global trade growth. For numerous developing economies, how to expand development space and mitigate external shocks during the process of value chain restructuring remains a core issue in the future of international trade.