Abstract

Intuitive Machines will release its quarterly results on November 12, 2026 Pre-Mkt, with investors watching revenue trajectory, margins, and adjusted EPS as the company transitions mission revenue into delivery milestones and seeks improved profitability.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations embedded in the company’s prior guidance framework point to a current-quarter revenue estimate of 245.88 million US dollars with an estimated year-over-year growth of 299.05%, an EBIT estimate of -20.81 million US dollars with a year-over-year change of -108.36%, and an estimated EPS of -0.12 with a year-over-year change of -151.18%. Company-reported unit economics from the last quarter translate to a gross profit margin of 17.40% and a net profit margin of -22.53%, while the forecasted quarter’s net and gross margins will depend on milestone timing and mix; explicit forecast margins were not provided, and adjusted EPS is expected to remain negative on a year-over-year basis.

The main business outlook highlights continued concentration in fixed-price contracts tied to lunar missions and related engineering services, with additional contributions from reimbursable expenses and grants; revenue execution remains sensitive to delivery schedules and mission mix. The most promising segment is fixed-price mission revenue, estimated last quarter at 180.02 million US dollars, which is supported by a strong milestone cadence and shows robust year-over-year scaling from the company’s expanding mission backlog.

Last Quarter Review

The previous quarter delivered revenue of 206.17 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 17.40%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -46.45 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -22.53%, and an adjusted EPS (proxied by reported EPS) of -0.29, with revenue growing 309.77% year over year and EPS improving by 31.82% year over year. The company missed revenue estimates but still posted strong top-line expansion due to milestone recognitions across major projects, while maintaining positive gross profitability despite ramp costs. Main business highlights were dominated by fixed-price contracts generating 180.02 million US dollars, supplemented by reimbursable expenses of 21.19 million US dollars, grants of 2.76 million US dollars, and time-and-materials work of 2.20 million US dollars, reflecting a project-centric revenue mix aligned with lunar services and systems delivery.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Fixed-price mission revenue and milestone timing

Fixed-price contracts remain the core revenue engine and are expected to set the pace for quarterly results. The pipeline’s milestone structure can create volatility, yet it also allows for rapid revenue scaling when missions hit scheduled delivery gates. With the previous quarter at 180.02 million US dollars for fixed-price work, the forecasted revenue increase to 245.88 million US dollars implies continued conversion of backlog into revenue through mission progress, integration activities, and potential delivery completions. The company’s gross margin last quarter at 17.40% suggests that mission mix, subcontracting content, and schedule adherence will be key determinants of profitability this quarter. Execution risks remain concentrated in schedule alignment and cost control, but a growing revenue base enhances operating leverage prospects if overhead and program costs are contained.

Most promising business: Lunar mission deliveries and lunar services

The largest growth optionality resides in lunar mission deliveries where milestone completions can meaningfully influence quarterly outcomes. This segment—reflected mainly in fixed-price revenues—has shown rapid growth as programs advance from design to integration and delivery. The forecasted 299.05% year-over-year revenue increase underscores how a single quarter’s milestone timing can transform the P&L footprint. If mission plans proceed on schedule, the segment can support both top-line expansion and improve gross profit dollars, even if dollar margins are partially offset by subcontractor costs and mission-specific logistics. The company’s ability to expand ancillary services tied to mission operations, data services, and continued engineering support can provide incremental revenue that carries favorable unit economics relative to heavy-integration phases.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Margin trajectory, cash burn, and milestone credibility

Investors are likely to concentrate on three variables that collectively set sentiment for the near term. First, the gross margin trajectory against a 17.40% last-quarter baseline, which will reflect the blend of high-value milestones and cost discipline; higher-margin mission components and disciplined subcontractor management could lift reported margin, while integration-intensive phases may dilute it. Second, cash usage and the path toward narrowing losses, given the current-quarter EBIT estimate of -20.81 million US dollars and negative EPS forecast; clarity around working-capital dynamics and collections tied to milestones will be critical. Third, credibility and execution on milestone timing, which directly govern revenue recognition; a clear cadence and visibility on upcoming mission stages can reduce volatility and support improved confidence in quarterly outcomes.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of opinions is cautiously constructive, leaning toward a bullish interpretation of the near-term revenue expansion while acknowledging profitability constraints. Coverage characterizes the current-quarter setup as revenue-acceleration with negative EPS, highlighting that the 245.88 million US dollars revenue estimate with a 299.05% year-over-year increase provides a supportive backdrop for top-line momentum even as EBIT and EPS remain negative. Analysts emphasize program execution and backlog conversion as the principal near-term indicators of value creation, noting that sustained positive gross margin and improved operating discipline could set the stage for reduced quarterly losses. The majority stance anticipates that successful milestone delivery will keep revenue on an upward trajectory and could catalyze incremental confidence despite continued losses, provided that the company reaffirms mission schedules and outlines a pragmatic plan to manage costs and working capital intensity.