Consumer demand is anticipated to provide a foundation for express delivery volume needs.

In the near term, following the conclusion of the "618" promotional peak season, the industry has entered its traditional slower period, necessitating continued observation of competitive dynamics within the express delivery sector. Over the medium to long term, the release of policies aimed at expanding consumption is expected to provide sustained support for consumer demand, which in turn underpins demand for express delivery services.

The ongoing implementation of "anti-involution" policies has led to a recovery in average express delivery prices, a trend already reflected in the financial performance of several companies. With the valuations of major industry stocks currently at historical lows, it is advisable to actively monitor opportunities for valuation recovery driven by improving earnings.

Online Retail Growth Moderates, Pro-Consumption Policies Aim to Stabilize Retail Sales

In the first half of the year, online sales of physical goods reached 6.4 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. This growth rate showed a slight deceleration compared to the January-May period. The proportion of online retail in total consumer goods retail sales rose to 25.85%. The recent publication of a consumption expansion plan targets total retail sales of consumer goods to reach around 60 trillion yuan by 2030, implying a steady annual growth rate that is expected to further support the growth in express delivery demand.

Express Volume Growth Slows as "Anti-Involution" Measures Lift Average Prices

In the first half, revenue for major express delivery enterprises reached 771.41 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, while business volume was 100.38 billion parcels, up 5%. The growth rate for volume slowed slightly compared to the previous period. The average price per parcel was 7.68 yuan, showing a 2.3% increase. Data for June alone showed continued positive effects from the "anti-involution" policies, with the average price per parcel rising 3.8% year-on-year to 7.77 yuan.

Policy and Digitalization Drive Significant Earnings Growth Forecasts for Listed Couriers

In June, the parcel volumes for SF Holding, Yunda Holdings, YTO Express, and STO Express were 1.389 billion, 2.172 billion, 2.853 billion, and 2.590 billion respectively, with varying year-on-year growth rates. Their average revenue per parcel also showed mixed changes. Recent first-half performance forecasts from several companies indicate substantial profit growth: STO Express expects net profit attributable to shareholders to increase between 109.59% and 133.85%; YTO Express forecasts growth between 69.34% and 85.73%; and Yunda Holdings anticipates an increase between 71.15% and 98.57%.

Key risk factors include an economic recovery falling short of expectations, weaker-than-anticipated online consumption demand, intensifying industry competition, rising costs, and slower-than-expected industry growth.